Highlights
A drop in petroleum prices led to wide declines in import prices during November, down 0.9 percent with the year-on-year rate at minus 1.6 percent. Petroleum prices have pulled the year-on-year rate into the minus column now for six of the last seven months. Petroleum prices, down 3.6 percent on the month, are down 7.0 percent year-on-year.

A look at finished goods prices shows declines for both capital goods, down 0.3 percent, and for consumer goods excluding autos which fell 0.1 percent. The year-on-year rates for both these readings shows only the slightest pressure at plus 0.3 percent for each. Soft prices for imports reflect softness in domestic demand.

Reflecting softness in foreign demand are export prices which for finished goods, like they are for imports, showing no more than marginal pressure with capital goods up 0.2 percent for a plus 1.2 percent year-on-year rate and with prices for consumer goods excluding autos down 0.2 percent on both the month and the year. Total export prices fell 0.7 percent and are up only 0.7 percent on the year. Agricultural prices have been firm, up 10.0 percent on the year, but are up only 0.1 percent in November's data.

Today's data point to benign readings for tomorrow's producer report and Friday's consumer price report. Today's data also won't give much ammunition to the inflation hawks at the Fed. Watch for assessments on inflation in today's FOMC statement and press conference.

Market Consensus before announcement
Import prices rose a sizable 0.5 percent in October following very sharp fuel-driven gains of 1.1 percent and 1.2 percent in the two prior months. These were sharp monthly gains but come from a low base with the year-on-year rate, after five straight months in the negative column, finally emerging into positive ground but just barely at plus 0.4 percent. Fuel pressures eased in October highlighting pressures in other readings including ex-petroleum industrial supplies, up a steep 1.2 percent in the month, and incremental gains in finished goods prices where the category of motor vehicles shows a 0.3 percent monthly rise for a year-on-year rate of plus 1.8 percent which doesn't look like much but is the highest since April.

2012 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/13 2/14 3/14 4/11 5/10 6/12 7/12 8/10 9/12 10/11 11/9 12/12 Release For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov