2012 Economic Calendar
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Industrial Production  
Released On 7/17/2012 9:15:00 AM For Jun, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Production - M/M change-0.1 %-0.2 %0.3 %-0.1 % to 0.5 %0.4 %
Manufacturing - M/M-0.4 %-0.7 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.5 %0.7 %
Capacity Utilization Rate - Level79.0 %78.7 %79.2 %78.9 % to 79.4 %78.9 %
cap util - level79.044 index level

Highlights
In June, industrial production made a nice comeback. Overall industrial production rebounded 0.4 percent, following a 0.2 percent decline in May (originally down 0.1 percent). Analysts forecast a 0.3 percent increase.

By major components, manufacturing gained 0.7 percent after falling 0.7 percent in May (previously estimated at down 0.4 percent). Expectations were for a 0.2 percent boost for the manufacturing component. Motor vehicles output added significantly to manufacturing, rebounding 1.9 percent in June after a 2.2 percent decline in May. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles was quite strong also gaining 0.6 percent in June, following a 0.5 percent drop in May.

In June, mining output gained 0.7 percent, following no change the prior month. Utilities output declined 1.9 percent, following a 2.8 percent boost in May.

Overall capacity utilization improved to 78.9 percent from 78.7 percent in May. Analysts expected 79.2 percent.

The gains in manufacturing were widespread by industry. The production index for durable goods rose 0.8 percent in June after having declined 0.6 percent in May. In June, most durable goods industries exhibited gains, with the largest increases registered by machinery, which advanced 2.3 percent, and motor vehicles and parts, which rose 1.9 percent. The production of nondurables advanced 0.5 percent in June after having fallen 0.7 percent in May. Among the major components of nondurables, sizable increases were recorded in June by the indexes for textile and product mills, printing and support, petroleum and coal products, chemicals, and plastics and rubber products.

The good news is that manufacturing had a better-than-expected month in June. But the big question mark remains whether demand is slowing as reflected in softer numbers for new orders in many manufacturing surveys for June.

The traditional non-NAICS numbers for industrial production may differ marginally from the NAICS basis figures.

Consensus Outlook
Industrial production in May slipped 0.1 percent, following a rebound of 1.0 percent in April. By major components, manufacturing fell 0.4 percent, following a 0.7 percent jump in April. Motor vehicles output declined 1.5 percent after a 4.0 percent surge in April. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles declined 0.3 percent after a 0.5 percent boost the prior month. In May, mining output rebounded 0.9 percent, following a 0.6 percent drop the month before. Utilities output rose 0.8 percent, following a 5.3 percent surge in April. Overall capacity utilization eased to 79.0 percent from 79.2 percent in April. Looking ahead, production worker hours gained 0.6 percent in June, suggesting a strong manufacturing component in industrial production.

Definition
The Federal Reserve's monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. The production index measures real output and is expressed as a percentage of real output in a base year, currently 2012. The capacity index, which is an estimate of sustainable potential output, is also expressed as a percentage of actual output in 2012. The rate of capacity utilization equals the seasonally adjusted output index expressed as a percentage of the related capacity index.

The index of industrial production is available nationally by market and industry groupings. The major groupings are comprised of final products (such as consumer goods, business equipment and construction supplies), intermediate products and materials. The industry groupings are manufacturing (further subdivided into durable and nondurable goods), mining and utilities. The capacity utilization rate -- reflecting the resource utilization of the nation's output facilities -- is available for the same market and industry groupings.

Industrial production was also revised to NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) in the early 2000s. Unlike other economic series that lost much historical data prior to 1992, the Federal Reserve Board was able to reconstruct historical data that go back more than 30 years.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The industrial sector accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP. Yet, it creates much of the cyclical variability in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation's factories, mines and utilities. In the past, supply bottlenecks created inflationary pressures as the utilization rate hit 84 to 85 percent.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/182/153/164/175/166/157/178/159/1410/1611/1612/14
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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