2012 Economic Calendar
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Industrial Production
Released On 12/14/2012 9:15:00 AM For Nov, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Production - M/M change-0.4 %-0.7 %0.3 %-0.4 % to 0.9 %1.1 %
Capacity Utilization Rate - Level77.8 %77.7 %78.0 %77.5 % to 78.4 %78.4 %
Manufacturing - M/M-0.9 %-1.0 %0.4 %-0.2 % to 1.2 %1.1 %

Highlights
Industrial production rebounded in November with notable help from recovering from Hurricane Sandy and a boost in auto assemblies. Industrial production rebounded 1.1 percent, following a decline of 0.7 percent in October (originally down 0.4 percent). The market consensus was for a 0.3 percent gain.

In November, the manufacturing component increased 1.1 percent after dropping 1.0 percent in October. Analysts expected a 0.4 percent boost. According to the Fed, nearly all the decline in factory output in October is estimated to have been related to Hurricane Sandy, and the increase in November reflects a post-hurricane rebound in production as well as the solid advance in the output of motor vehicles and parts. Within manufacturing, increases were widespread in November across both durable and nondurable goods industries.

The bright spot in manufacturing for November was motor vehicles & parts, which jumped 4.5 percent after no change the month before. Excluding motor vehicles, manufacturing output rebounded 0.8 percent after a 1.0 percent drop in October.

The output of utilities jumped 1.0 percent in November, following no change the prior month. Production at mines advanced 0.8, following a 0.3 percent rise in October.

Capacity utilization for total industry rose to 78.4 percent from 77.7 percent in October. The market forecast was for 78.0 percent.

The bottom line is that manufacturing has seen sharp swings over the last two months due to Hurricane Sandy. But net for the period, this sector is still soft.

The traditional non-NAICS numbers for industrial production may differ marginally from the NAICS basis figures.

Market Consensus before announcement
Industrial production declined 0.4 percent in October after having increased 0.2 percent in September. Hurricane Sandy, which held down production in the Northeast region at the end of October, is estimated by the Fed to have reduced the rate of change in total output by nearly 1 percentage point. In October, the index for manufacturing decreased 0.9 percent, following a 0.1 percent gain in September. Excluding storm-related effects, factory output was roughly unchanged from September. The output of utilities edged down 0.1 percent in October, and production at mines advanced 1.5 percent. Capacity utilization for total industry decreased 0.4 percentage point to 77.8 percent in October.

Definition
The Federal Reserve's monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. The production index measures real output and is expressed as a percentage of real output in a base year, currently 2007. The capacity index, which is an estimate of sustainable potential output, is also expressed as a percentage of actual output in 2007. The rate of capacity utilization equals the seasonally adjusted output index expressed as a percentage of the related capacity index.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The industrial sector accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP. Yet, it creates much of the cyclical variability in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation's factories, mines and utilities. In the past, supply bottlenecks created inflationary pressures as the utilization rate hit 84 to 85 percent.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/182/153/164/175/166/157/178/159/1410/1611/1612/14
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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