2012 Economic Calendar
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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey  
Released On 9/20/2012 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level-7.1 -4.0 -10.0  to -0.2 -1.9 

Highlights
A gain for new orders is a positive signal from a downbeat report. New orders in the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing sector rose a sharp 6.5 points to plus 1.0 for the first positive reading since way back in May. A positive reading indicates monthly growth.

The prior run of contraction in new orders is depressing readings on other activity. Backlog orders are still in contraction, though at a slightly less severe rate. But shipments are contracting more severely though the gain in new orders, if of course sustained in the months ahead, points to strength for future shipments. And future readings are very positive in this report, showing a massive 28.7 point jump in the six-month outlook for general business conditions.

Other readings include continued contraction for current employment, continued drawdown in inventories, and tame readings on prices. The headline index, at only minus 1.9, indicates only slight contraction in general activity. The Philly Fed report was the first to signal trouble for the manufacturing sector and though most of its readings remain depressed, the gain in new orders is a very special positive. Watch next week for a run of regional factory orders starting Monday morning from the Dallas Fed.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The general business conditions index of the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey improved to minus 7.1 for its August reading versus minus 12.9 in July. A minus reading indicates monthly contraction and, in this case, a less severe pace than the monthly contraction in July. New orders also showed improvement but remained in negative territory, rising to minus 5.5 from July's minus 6.9. This was the best reading since May when new orders first began to contract.

Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/192/163/154/195/176/217/198/169/2010/1811/1512/20
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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