2012 Economic Calendar
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Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
Released On 11/29/2012 11:00:00 AM For Nov, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Level-4 -1 -6  to 1 -6 

Highlights
Manufacturing activity in the Kansas City Fed District again slipped as the composite index declined to minus 6 in November from minus 4 in October. This marked the first time the composite index has been negative for two straight months since mid-2009. The consensus called for mild improvement in the manufacturing index in November to minus 1 from minus 4 the prior month.

Manufacturing slowed at durable goods-producing plants, while nondurable factories reported a slight uptick in activity, particularly for food and plastics products. Other month-over-month indexes were mixed in November. The production index was unchanged at minus 6, while the new orders and order backlog indexes declined for the third straight month to their lowest levels in three years. In contrast, the employment index increased from minus 6 to 0, and the shipments and new orders for exports indexes were less negative. The raw materials inventory index decreased further from 2 to minus 7, while the finished goods inventory index rose from 3 to 9.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index declined slightly in the Kansas City Fed District as the composite index declined to minus 4 in October from plus 2 in September. The production index eased further from minus 4 to minus 6, and the new orders and order backlog indexes also declined. The employment index moved into negative territory for the first time this year, while the shipments index inched higher but still remained negative.

Definition
The monthly Survey of Manufacturers provides information on current manufacturing activity in the Tenth District. The accumulated results also help trace longer term trends. The survey monitors manufacturing plants selected according to geographic distribution, industry mix, and size. Survey results reveal changes in several indicators of manufacturing activity, including production and shipments, and identify changes in prices of raw materials and finished products. Answers cover changes over the previous month, changes over the past twelve months, and expectations for activity six months into the future. The breakeven point for each index is zero with positive numbers indicating growth and negative numbers reflecting decline. The headline number is the composite index for current month activity. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes.

The Kansas City Fed composite manufacturing index (and components) is a special type of index called a "diffusion index." A diffusion index measures how diffuse its components are-or how closely (or not) the components move together. That is, for the Kansas City Fed composite manufacturing index, are responses up or down? Diffusion indexes have different baselines for breakeven for zero growth. Some diffusion indexes have zero for the breakeven point and others (such as ISM) have 50 as the breakeven point. "Breakeven" means that higher numbers mean positive growth and below numbers mean contraction. And the further above breakeven indicates a stronger growth rate than just above breakeven. The same applies to below breakeven. A larger negative (below breakeven) indicates greater negative growth. Essentially, changes in the diffusion index indicate changes in the rate of growth or contraction.

If all members of a group of people (sample population) are asked if something has changed and in which direction, they will answer in one of three ways: it has not changed, it has increased, or it has decreased. Essentially, respondents in the ISM survey are asked whether activity for each of the indicators compared to the previous month are "Better," "Same," or "Worse." If all members of a group of people (sample population) are asked if something has changed and in which direction, they will answer in one of three ways: it has not changed, it has increased, or it has decreased.

The indexes for the Kansas City Fed report, which can range from 100 to -100, reveal the general direction of the indicators by showing how the number of plants with improving conditions offset those with worsening conditions. Index values greater than zero generally suggest expansion, while values less than zero indicate contraction. The closer index values are to 100, the more widespread are increases among respondents. The closer index values are to -100, the more widespread are decreases.  Why Investors Care
 
 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/233/294/265/246/287/268/309/2710/2511/2912/21
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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