2012 Economic Calendar
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Treasury Budget
Released On 2/10/2012 2:00:00 PM For Jan, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Treasury Budget - Level$-86 B$-50.1 B$-62.5 B to $-15.0 B$-27.4 B

Highlights
Rising economic growth is increasing tax receipts and is helping to bring down the government's still enormous budget deficit. January's deficit totaled only $27.4 billion, roughly half the Econoday consensus for $50.1 billion. Much of the improvement is due to timing issues for benefits which were moved into December. Fundamentally though, much of the improvement reflects a 3 percent year-on-year increase in receipts. A look at the fiscal year-to-date deficit, which helps smooth out monthly timing issues, is $349.1 billion, down sizably from $418.8 billion a year ago. In a special note, retailers have been complaining that January and February sales have been held back by a slow tax refund season, confirmed in this report by the Treasury which says refunds are about half what they were at this time last year.

Market Consensus before announcement
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a December deficit of $86.0 billion. The deficit for the first three months of the government's fiscal year continued to show sizable improvement with receipts up 4.4 percent and spending down 2.6 percent. Looking ahead, the month of January typically shows a modest surplus for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average surplus for the month of January has been $10.9 billion. However, over the past 5 years it has averaged a deficit of $5.8 billion. The January 2011 deficit came in at $49.8 billion.

Definition
The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/122/103/124/115/106/127/128/109/1310/1211/1312/12
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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