2012 Economic Calendar
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Treasury Budget
Released On 3/12/2012 2:00:00 PM For Feb, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Treasury Budget - Level$-27.4 B$-229.0 B$-229.4 B to $-25.0 B$-231.7 B

Highlights
Improvement underway in the economy is reflected in improvement for the Treasury's budget deficit which, four months into the government' fiscal year, is running 9.4 percent below last year. Calendar shifts are playing a role in the improvement, excluding which the fiscal year-to-date deficit is running 3.3 percent below last year. The receipt side of the ledger shows mostly gains led by corporate income taxes. The outlay side shows mostly declines with the exception of net interest payments. The deficit for the month of February is $231.7 billion.

Market Consensus before announcement
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a January deficit totaling only $27.4 billion, roughly half the Econoday consensus for $50.1 billion. Much of the improvement was due to timing issues for benefits which were moved into December. Fundamentally though, much of the improvement reflected a 3 percent year-on-year increase in receipts. Looking ahead, the month of February typically shows a deficit for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for the month of February has been $126.1 billion and $165.9 billion over the past 5 years. The February 2011 deficit came in at $222.5 billion.

Definition
The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/122/103/124/115/106/127/128/109/1310/1211/1312/12
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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