2012 Economic Calendar
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Treasury Budget
Released On 10/12/2012 3:00:00 PM For Sep, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Treasury Budget - Level$-190.5 B$0.0 B$-2.0 B to $77.0 B$75.0 B

Highlights
The government's total budget deficit for fiscal year 2012 is in and it is enormous -- $1.09 trillion. The good news is that it's 16 percent below last year's deficit of $1.30 trillion. The improvement is centered on the receipt side led by a 34 percent rise in corporate taxes. The much larger component of individual taxes is also up, but much less at a 3.7 percent gain. The outlay side also shows improvement with a 1.7 percent decrease from fiscal year 2011. Defense outlays fell 3.6 percent with net interest expense down 2.1 percent. Social security outlays, however, rose 5.8 percent.

Monthly data for September show a rare monthly surplus of $75.0 billion which is the largest monthly surplus since April 2008. But calendar shifts for receipts and outlays are at play excluding which September's surplus would have been smaller at $20.0 billion. Note that special factors are also at play with the full fiscal-year data excluding which the deficit would have been $1.13 trillion vs a 2011 deficit ex-special items of $1.34 trillion.

The deficit relative to GDP is 7 percent vs 8.7 percent in fiscal 2011 and a scary 10 percent at the deepest of the recession. The outlook for fiscal 2013 looks for little change from this fiscal year, that is assuming the government doesn't fall off the fiscal cliff at year end.

Market Consensus before announcement
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a deficit of $190.5 billion in August, compared to a shortfall of $69.6 billion the month before. Eleven months into the fiscal year, the government's deficit slowed further in August and was down 5.6 percent versus this time last year. The biggest improvement was in corporate taxes which were up 31 percent. Individual taxes, which are a much larger source of income for the Treasury, were also higher, up 3.9 percent. Looking ahead, the month of September typically shows a moderate surplus for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average surplus for the month of September has been $20.0 billion and $3.2 billion over the past 5 years. For September 2011, the budget actually was a deficit of $62.8 billion.

Definition
The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/122/103/124/115/106/127/128/109/1310/1211/1312/12
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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