Econoday Economic Report: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index March 13, 2012

2012 Economic Calendar

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Released On 3/13/2012 7:30:00 AM For Feb, 2012

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
level	93.9	95.0	94.0 to 95.2	94.3

Highlights
Optimism at the small business level, up now for six straight months, is the highest in a year and the second highest of the recovery. The small business optimism index rose four tenths to 94.3 with gains led by earnings trends and by plans to build inventories. Small businesses also expect their sales to increase. But in a contrasting signal, the biggest negative in the report is the outlook for the economy. Also negative, employment readings edged slightly lower.

Market Consensus before announcement
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in January rose one tenth to 93.9. More expect the economy to improve and more job openings were reported, but earnings trends are down as is sentiment on inventories which the NFIB panel expects to further reduce. While the index is up for a fifth straight month, the report points to a slow and weak pace for economic growth.

Definition
The small business optimism index is compiled from a survey that is conducted each month by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. The index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components based on questions on the following: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job opening, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend. The baseline of 100 is for the average of the year 1986. A positive percentage change indicates improvement while a negative percentage change in the index suggests a decline in optimism. But the level indicates optimism relative to 1986—a moderately healthy year for economic growth with annual average GDP growth at 3.5 percent. Why Investors Care

2012 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/10 2/14 3/13 4/10 5/8 6/12 7/10 8/14 9/11 10/9 11/13 12/11

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