2012 Economic Calendar
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Leading Indicators  
Released On 1/26/2012 10:00:00 AM For Dec, 2011
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Leading Indicators - M/M change0.5 %0.2 %0.7 %0.2 % to 0.9 %0.4 %

The LEI kicks off a new youth today, in a recasting of components that include the casting out of money supply in favor of a credit measure and the casting out of deliveries in favor of the ISM new orders index. The first reading from the mix shows a respectable 0.4 percent gain for December vs sharply downward revised gains in the prior two months of plus 0.2 and plus 0.6 percent.

The new mix hasn't upended the dominant positive factor for the LEI which is the rate spread between low and high rates. The downward trend for jobless claims is the second biggest plus. Other readings are neutral to mildly positive and there are few negatives, but the negatives do include consumer expectations which is another component that has undergone a revamping.

Other details include a 0.3 percent gain for the coincident index, up from a 0.1 percent gain in December but down from an outsized 0.8 percent gain in November. For the markets, the new mix limits the importance of the LEI, at least initially.

Consensus Outlook
The January 26 release includes comprehensive revisions to the Conference Board's index of leading indicators. Prior releases are not comparable. This is the first major overhaul of the LEI since 1996. According to the Conference Board, the changes respond to structural changes in the U.S. economy:

The former Real Money Supply (M2) component will be removed, retroactive to 1990, and replaced by a new Leading Credit Index (LCI) component.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Supplier Delivery Index will be replaced as a component by the ISM New Orders Index.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index will be replaced by an equally weighted average of consumer expectations measures that come from surveys conducted by The Conference Board and Reuters/University of Michigan.

The "New Orders for (nondefense) Capital Goods" component will be replaced by "New Orders for (nondefense) Capital Goods, excluding Aircraft."

The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.  Why Investors Care

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/173/224/195/176/217/198/179/2010/1811/2112/20
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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