Today's reports add to the view that the recovery has slowed. The Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell 0.3 percent in June after an upwardly revised 0.4 percent boost the prior month (originally up 0.3 percent). Weighing down on the June number were the new orders index (minus 0.16 percentage contribution), consumer expectations (minus 0.13 percent contribution), building permits (minus 0.10 percentage contribution), jobless claims, stock prices, and new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.
On the positive side, the leader continued to be the rate spread between the 10-year Treasury and fed funds rate (0.16 percent contribution). Also slightly positive were the leading credit index, and new orders for consumer goods.
But the economy is still growing, according to the coincident index which rose 0.2 percent in June, matching May's pace.
Overall, leading indicators, existing home sales, and Philly Fed disappointed today, suggesting a weakening recovery.
Recent History Of This Indicator
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators posted a 0.3 percent gain for May after 0.1 percent dip in April and 0.2 percent gain in March. Strength in the latest month was in building permits (+0.21 percent contribution), the Treasury/fed funds spread (+0.18 percent contribution), and in the ISM new orders index (+0.10 percent contribution). The key negatives were the factory workweek (-0.13 percentage contribution) and stock prices (-0.13 percentage contribution). The coincident index rose 0.2 percent, matching the pace in April, indicating that current economic activity is moderately positive.