2012 Economic Calendar
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Leading Indicators  
Released On 9/20/2012 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Leading Indicators - M/M change0.4 %0.0 %-0.3 % to 0.3 %-0.1 %

The index of leading economic indicators is down 0.1 percent for the third contraction in the last five months. The decline for the ISM new orders index weighs most heavily on the August LEI, but this decline looks to possibly reverse this month based on this morning's rise in new orders for both the PMI manufacturing flash report as well as the Philly Fed report. Consumer expectations are the second biggest negative in today's report but this too looks to reverse based on the big surge in last week's consumer sentiment index and also improvement underway for the Bloomberg consumer comfort index.

But jobless claims, which are stubbornly high, look to be a sustained negative. A sustained positive will be interest rates though the decline underway in long rates, instead of giving a boost, has been taking steam out of the Conference Board index. The spread between the overnight fed funds rate and the 10-year Treasury rate has been narrowing which has been narrowing the contribution to the LEI. But the contribution is still the strongest of any component.

Other data include a small 0.1 percent rise in the coincident index, down from 0.3 percent July but up from June's 0.2 percent decline. In sum, today's report is mixed with the Conference Board saying the pace of economic growth is not likely to change in the months ahead.

Consensus Outlook
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators in July rebounded 0.4 percent, offsetting the June decline of 0.4 percent. Improvement in jobless claims and in building permits led the increase in the overall index with each component having a contribution of 0.18 percentage points. Also with positive contributions were the report's credit reading, the stock market, and the report's imputed readings for new orders on both consumer and capital goods. In a rare showing, the rate spread, though a positive contributor, is back in the pack a bit which reflects the very low levels of long Treasury rates (low rates imply low borrowing demand). One glaring negative was the new orders reading from the ISM's manufacturing report which has been signaling monthly contraction for two months running. Another negative was consumer expectations. The manufacturing workweek was neutral.

The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.  Why Investors Care

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/173/224/195/176/217/198/179/2010/1811/2112/20
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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