2012 Economic Calendar
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Leading Indicators
Released On 10/18/2012 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Leading Indicators - M/M change-0.1 %-0.4 %0.2 %0.0 % to 0.5 %0.6 %

Highlights
A sweep of positives are lifting the index of leading economic indicators which is up a very sharp 0.6 percent in September. The stock market is a positive in the month as is the report's component for credit conditions. A separate reading on interest rates remains a major contributor though its methodology, which tracks the spread between long and short rates, may need a tune up, as the component's contribution to the index is waning, not increasing, as long rates are moving lower. Low mortgage rates right now are a major factor behind acceleration in the housing sector with building permits the largest contributor in September.

A negative in the report is a decline in the ISM new orders component with a small drag from unemployment claims another negative. Consumer expectations are also a negative for September but they look to be a big positive for the next report given last week's jump in the mid-month consumer sentiment report, improvement confirmed by this morning's Bloomberg consumer comfort index.

Today's report also includes a 0.2 percent rise in the coincident index which points to ongoing growth for the economy. The headline gain for the LEI, together with a positive headline from the Philly Fed, are giving a morning lift to the Dow.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators in August dipped 0.1 percent for the third contraction in the last five months. The decline for the ISM new orders index weighed most heavily on the August LEI. Consumer expectations were the second biggest negative. A sustained positive was and will be the interest rate spread although the decline underway in long rates has reduced this component's contribution to the leading index. This is counter intuitive as lower long rates will help economic growth. Other data include a small 0.1 percent rise in the coincident index, down from 0.3 percent July but up from June's 0.2 percent decline.

Definition
A composite index of ten economic indicators that should lead overall economic activity. This indicator was initially compiled by the Commerce Department but is now compiled and produced by The Conference Board. It has been revised many times in the past 30 years -- particularly when it has not done a good job of predicting turning points.  Why Investors Care
 

 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/173/224/195/176/217/198/179/2010/1811/2112/20
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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