2013 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Price Index  
Released On 7/16/2013 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2013
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
CPI - M/M change0.1 %0.4 %0.0 % to 0.5 %0.5 %
CPI - Y/Y change1.4 %1.8 %
CPI less food & energy- M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.2 %0.2 %
CPI less food & energy - Y/Y change1.7 %1.6 %
CPI - level231.831 index level
Core CPI - level233.267 index level

Headline inflation at the consumer level jumped in June-largely on energy. Meanwhile, the core rate held steady. The consumer price index for June surged 0.5 percent, following a modest rebound of 0.1 percent in May. The latest number came in higher than the consensus forecast for 0.4 percent. The core CPI-excluding food and energy-increased 0.2 percent, matching the pace in May. Expectations were for a 0.2 percent increase.

By major components outside the core, energy spiked 3.4 percent, following a partial rebound of 0.4 percent in May. Gasoline surged 6.3 after no change in May. The food component rebounded 0.2 percent, following a dip of 0.1 percent in May.

For the core measure, advances in the indexes for shelter, medical care, and apparel accounted for most of the rise, with increases in the indexes for new vehicles and household furnishings and operations also contributing. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and recreation all declined in June.

Year-on-year, overall CPI inflation jumped to 1.8 percent from 1.4 percent in May (seasonally adjusted). The core rate posted at 1.6 percent, compared to 1.7 percent. On an unadjusted year-ago basis, the headline CPI in June was up 1.8 percent and the core was up 1.6 percent.

The next FOMC statement likely will use the phrase "transitory" on recent inflation trends as energy has lifted the headline rate but the core is holding relatively steady.

Consensus Outlook
The consumer price index for May made only a partial rebound at the headline level, rising 0.1 percent after falling 0.4 percent in April. The core CPI-excluding food and energy-rose 0.2 percent versus 0.1 percent in April. By major components outside the core, energy rose 0.4 percent after a drop of 4.3 percent in April. Gasoline was unchanged after decreasing 8.1 percent. Electricity and natural gas were responsible for the rise in energy. The food component dipped 0.1 percent in May, following a rise of 0.2 percent the month before. For the core measure, shelter costs rose 0.3 percent. Advances in the indexes for airline fares, recreation, and apparel also contributed to the rise in the core. In contrast, the indexes for medical care and used cars and trucks declined in May.

The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. That is the index shows the change in price levels since the index base period, currently 1982-84 = 100. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation.  Why Investors Care
It is always a good idea to look at more than a few months of data to get a sense of changes in established trends. Monthly changes in the CPI are mainly volatile because of sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. The core CPI eliminates the sharper fluctuations.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Yearly changes tend to smooth out more severe monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of the underlying rate of inflation. Even with the smoother trend, note that the core CPI does not fluctuate as much as the total CPI.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/162/213/154/165/166/187/168/159/1710/3011/2012/17
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