2013 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Price Index  
Released On 10/30/2013 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2013
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
CPI - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.0 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
CPI - Y/Y change1.5 %1.2 %
CPI less food & energy- M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.2 %0.1 %
CPI less food & energy - Y/Y change1.8 %1.7 %
CPI - level233.526 index level
Core CPI - level234.302 index level

Inflation firmed slightly at the headline level in September while the core rate remained low. Consumer price inflation in September rose 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent rise the prior month. The latest number matched expectations. The core CPI-excluding food and energy-held steady at a rate of 0.1 percent. Analysts' forecast a 0.2 percent gain.

By major components outside the core, energy jumped 0.8 percent, following a decline of 0.3 percent in August. Gasoline increased 0.8 percent (NSA-down 1.3 percent), following a dip of 0.1 percent the month before. Food prices were unchanged after edging up 0.1 percent in August.

For the core measure, the shelter (up 0.2 percent) and medical care indexes (up 0.3 percent) accounted for most of this increase. The indexes for new vehicles (up 0.2 percent) and for airline fares (up 0.5 percent) rose as well, while the apparel (down 0.5 percent) and recreation (down 0.1 percent) indexes declined.

Year-on-year, overall CPI inflation slowed to 1.2 percent from 1.5 percent in August (seasonally adjusted). The core rate came in at 1.7 percent versus 1.8 percent in August. On an unadjusted year-ago basis, the headline CPI in August was up 1.2 percent and the core was up 1.7 percent.

The year-ago slowing in the CPI will give the Fed room to delay taper with this afternoon's policy decision by the FOMC.

Consensus Outlook
The consumer price index in August posted a 0.1 percent rise, compared to July's 0.2 percent and June's 0.5 percent. The core CPI-excluding food and energy-edged up 0.1 percent after rising 0.2 percent the month before. By major components outside the core, energy declined 0.3 percent after edging up 0.2 percent in July. Gasoline slipped 0.1 percent, following an increase of 1.0 percent the prior month. Food edged up 0.1 percent, matching the pace in July. For the core measure, softness was seen in several areas. The new vehicles index, which rose in June and July, was unchanged in August, while the recreation index was unchanged for the second straight month. The index for airline fares declined sharply in August, falling 3.1 percent. This was the third consecutive decline for the index, but it has still risen 1.5 percent over the past 12 months. The indexes for used cars and trucks and household furnishings and operations both declined slightly in August, falling 0.1 percent.

The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. That is the index shows the change in price levels since the index base period, currently 1982-84 = 100. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation.  Why Investors Care
It is always a good idea to look at more than a few months of data to get a sense of changes in established trends. Monthly changes in the CPI are mainly volatile because of sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. The core CPI eliminates the sharper fluctuations.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Yearly changes tend to smooth out more severe monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of the underlying rate of inflation. Even with the smoother trend, note that the core CPI does not fluctuate as much as the total CPI.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/162/213/154/165/166/187/168/159/1710/3011/2012/17
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