2013 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 1/28/2013 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change0.7 %0.7 %1.6 %-0.5 % to 3.5 %4.6 %
Ex-transportation - M/M1.6 %1.2 %0.4 %-2.5 % to 2.4 %1.3 %

Manufacturing may be regaining momentum. While civilian aircraft added huge lift to December durables orders, gains were broad based. New factory orders for durables in December jumped a monthly 4.6 percent, following a boost of 0.7 percent in November. The median market forecast was for a 1.6 percent increase. The transportation component spiked 11.9 percent after a 0.5 percent dip in November. Excluding transportation, durables orders increased 1.3 percent, following a rise of 1.2 percent in November. The consensus called for a 0.4 percent rise in orders excluding transportation.

Outside of transportation, component increases were led by primarily metals, up 3.6 percent, and computers & electronics, up 3.3 percent. Also rising were fabricated metals, machinery, and "other." The only negative component was electrical equipment, down 2.4 percent.

Nondefense capital goods orders rebounded 3.8 percent in December after a 2.4 percent drop the prior month. But the improvement was mostly civilian aircraft (Boeing), up a monthly 34.7 percent. Core investment orders in the private sector were sluggish as nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft edged up 0.2 percent in December, following a 3.0 percent boost the month before. Core investment orders likely were held back by uncertainty over fiscal cliff issues. Shipments for this series rose 0.3 percent in December, following a 2.2 percent increase the prior month.

Overall, manufacturing is doing better than suggested by some recent surveys. And there is upside potential for equipment investment if remaining fiscal cliff issues are resolved soon.

On the news, equity futures firmed while bond yields bumped up.

Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders in November rose 0.8 percent in November, following a 1.1 percent gain in October. The very volatile transportation component was down slightly on aircraft subcomponents. Excluding transportation, orders increased 1.6 percent, following a boost of 1.8 percent in October. The transportation component fell 1.0 percent after a 0.6 percent dip in October. Weakness in the latest month was in subcomponents for nondefense aircraft, down 13.8 percent, and defense aircraft, down 12.3 percent. New orders for motor vehicles were up 2.8 percent. Outside of transportation, healthy gains were seen in primary metals, machinery, and electrical equipment. Computers & electronics saw a modest rise while "other" durables edged down. Numbers reflect revisions from the more recent total factory orders report.

Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/282/273/264/245/246/257/258/269/2510/2511/2712/24
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