2013 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 6/25/2013 8:30:00 AM For May, 2013
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change3.3 %3.6 %3.3 %0.3 % to 9.2 %3.6 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change2.4 %2.6 %7.6 %
Ex-transportation - M/M1.3 %1.7 %-0.1 %-1.5 % to 0.9 %0.7 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr0.9 %1.3 %2.8 %

Highlights
Manufacturing may be regaining some momentum based on new durables orders-and not just based on aircraft. New factory orders for durables in May jumped 3.6 percent, following a matching 3.6 percent spike the month before. Market expectations were for a 3.3 percent advance with Boeing orders already known. The transportation component surged 10.2 percent after an 8.3 percent boost in April. Excluding transportation, durables orders still gained 0.7 percent after a 1.7 percent increase in April. The consensus expected a 0.1 percent decrease in orders excluding transportation.

Outside of transportation, component strength for May was mostly broad based. All major industries showed gains except for fabricated metals which slipped after an April gain.

Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft may even be picking up some steam. This series rose 1.1 percent, following a 1.2 percent rise in April. Shipments for this series rebounded 1.7 percent in May, following a 2.0 percent drop the month before.

Aircraft production is adding to manufacturing but in the latest month it appears that demand is spreading moderately to most major industries.

On the news, equity futures were little changed.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Durable goods orders in April rebounded 3.5 percent after dropping a sharp 5.9 percent in March. The transportation component gained 8.4 percent after falling 15.0 percent in March. Strength for April was largely in aircraft as defense aircraft jumped sharply, nondefense aircraft partially rebounded, and motor vehicles advanced. Excluding transportation, durables orders rebounded 1.5 percent, following a decline of 1.6 percent the month before. Outside of transportation, component strength for April was widespread. All major industries showed gains but all major industries had declined in March. Numbers reflect revisions from the more recent total factory orders report.

Definition
Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/282/273/264/245/246/257/258/269/2510/2511/2712/24
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