2013 Economic Calendar
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GDP  
Released On 12/20/2013 8:30:00 AM For Q3f:2013
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR3.6 %3.6 %3.3 % to 3.8 %4.1 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR2.0 %2.0 %2.0 % to 2.0 %2.0 %

Highlights
Real GDP growth unexpectedly was revised up sharply. But this time demand numbers were bumped up and the inventory number was little revised. Real GDP was revised up to 4.1 percent annualized, compared to the 3.6 percent second estimate and 2.5 percent in the second quarter. The upward revision was largely due stronger PCEs growth, a boost in the estimate for intellectual property, slightly higher exports, and slightly lower imports.

Demand numbers were raised. Final sales of domestic product were revised up to 2.5 percent, compared to the second estimate of 1.9 percent and 2.1 percent in the second quarter. Final sales to domestic purchasers (which exclude net exports) were bumped up to 2.3 percent versus the second estimate of 1.8 percent and 2.1 percent in the second quarter.

The GDP price index was unrevised at an annualized pace of 2.0 percent, compared second quarter growth of 0.6 percent.

Overall, it is good news that demand growth is somewhat stronger than earlier believed. Still, inventory growth was strong and the question remains as to whether it will weigh down on fourth quarter growth.

Recent History Of This Indicator
GDP growth in the second estimate for the third quarter was revised up to 3.6 percent annualized, compared to the 2.8 percent advance estimate and 2.5 percent in the second quarter. The upward revision was largely due to a higher estimate for inventory growth. Small upward revisions were in nonresidential fixed structures and government purchases. Net exports were revised down (higher imports and lower exports). Small downward revisions were in PCEs and residential investment. Demand numbers were little changed. Final sales of domestic product were nudged down to 1.9 percent, compared to the initial estimate of 2.0 percent and 2.1 percent in the second quarter. Final sales to domestic purchasers (which exclude net exports) were bumped up to 1.8 percent versus the first estimate of 1.7 percent and 2.1 percent in the second quarter. The GDP price index was raised marginally to an annualized gain of 2.0 percent, compared to the advance estimate of 1.9 percent and second quarter growth of 0.6 percent. The core GDP price index was unrevised at 1.9 percent, following an annualized rise of 0.9 percent in the second quarter.

Definition
Gross Domestic Product represents the total value of the country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically-produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and government entities. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, as well as in index form. Economists and market players always monitor the real growth rates generated by the GDP quantity index or the real dollar value. The quantity index measures inflation-adjusted activity, but we are more accustomed to looking at dollar values.

Household purchases are counted in personal consumption expenditures -- durable goods (such as furniture and cars), nondurable goods (such as clothing and food) and services (such as banking, education and transportation).

Private housing purchases are classified as residential investment. Businesses invest in nonresidential structures, durable equipment and computer software. Inventories at all stages of production are counted as investment. Only inventory changes, not levels, are added to GDP.

Net exports equal the sum of exports less imports. Exports are the purchases by foreigners of goods and services produced in the United States. Imports represent domestic purchases of foreign-produced goods and services and must be deducted from the calculation of GDP.

Government purchases of goods and services are the compensation of government employees and purchases from businesses and abroad. Data show the portion attributed to consumption and investment. Government outlays for transfer payments or interest payments are not included in GDP.

The GDP price index is a comprehensive indicator of inflation. It is typically lower than the consumer price index because investment goods (which are in the GDP price index but not the CPI) tend to have lower rates of inflation than consumer goods and services.
 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Real GDP growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate. It measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Quarterly growth rates are often volatile; consequently, economists also like to look at the year-over-year growth in GDP. The yearly changes tend to be more stable.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
It is common to compare quarterly changes at annual rates in the GDP deflator. These can be volatile, just like the quarterly swings in real GDP growth; as a result, the trend in inflation is better determined by year- over- year changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/302/283/284/265/306/267/318/299/2611/712/512/20
Release For: Q4a:Q4p:Q4f:Q1a:2013Q1p:2013Q1f:2013Q2a:2013Q2p:2013Q2f:2013Q3a:2013Q3p:2013Q3f:2013
 
A: Advance P: Preliminary F: Final


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