2013 Economic Calendar
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GDP
Released On 12/20/2013 8:30:00 AM For Q3f:2013
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR3.6 %3.6 %3.3 % to 3.8 %4.1 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR2.0 %2.0 %2.0 % to 2.0 %2.0 %

Highlights
Real GDP growth unexpectedly was revised up sharply. But this time demand numbers were bumped up and the inventory number was little revised. Real GDP was revised up to 4.1 percent annualized, compared to the 3.6 percent second estimate and 2.5 percent in the second quarter. The upward revision was largely due stronger PCEs growth, a boost in the estimate for intellectual property, slightly higher exports, and slightly lower imports.

Demand numbers were raised. Final sales of domestic product were revised up to 2.5 percent, compared to the second estimate of 1.9 percent and 2.1 percent in the second quarter. Final sales to domestic purchasers (which exclude net exports) were bumped up to 2.3 percent versus the second estimate of 1.8 percent and 2.1 percent in the second quarter.

The GDP price index was unrevised at an annualized pace of 2.0 percent, compared second quarter growth of 0.6 percent.

Overall, it is good news that demand growth is somewhat stronger than earlier believed. Still, inventory growth was strong and the question remains as to whether it will weigh down on fourth quarter growth.

Recent History Of This Indicator
GDP growth in the second estimate for the third quarter was revised up to 3.6 percent annualized, compared to the 2.8 percent advance estimate and 2.5 percent in the second quarter. The upward revision was largely due to a higher estimate for inventory growth. Small upward revisions were in nonresidential fixed structures and government purchases. Net exports were revised down (higher imports and lower exports). Small downward revisions were in PCEs and residential investment. Demand numbers were little changed. Final sales of domestic product were nudged down to 1.9 percent, compared to the initial estimate of 2.0 percent and 2.1 percent in the second quarter. Final sales to domestic purchasers (which exclude net exports) were bumped up to 1.8 percent versus the first estimate of 1.7 percent and 2.1 percent in the second quarter. The GDP price index was raised marginally to an annualized gain of 2.0 percent, compared to the advance estimate of 1.9 percent and second quarter growth of 0.6 percent. The core GDP price index was unrevised at 1.9 percent, following an annualized rise of 0.9 percent in the second quarter.

Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Real GDP growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate. It measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Quarterly growth rates are often volatile; consequently, economists also like to look at the year-over-year growth in GDP. The yearly changes tend to be more stable.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
It is common to compare quarterly changes at annual rates in the GDP deflator. These can be volatile, just like the quarterly swings in real GDP growth; as a result, the trend in inflation is better determined by year- over- year changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/302/283/284/265/306/267/318/299/2611/712/512/20
Release For: Q4a:Q4p:Q4f:Q1a:2013Q1p:2013Q1f:2013Q2a:2013Q2p:2013Q2f:2013Q3a:2013Q3p:2013Q3f:2013
 
A: Advance P: Preliminary F: Final


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