2013 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 6/27/2013 8:30:00 AM For May, 2013
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M change0.0 %0.1 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.4 %0.5 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change-0.2 %-0.3 %0.4 %0.1 % to 0.5 %0.3 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change-0.3 %-0.3 %0.1 %0.0 % to 0.2 %0.1 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.0 %0.0 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.2 %0.1 %
Personal Income - Yr/Yr change2.8 %2.9 %3.3 %
Consumer Spending - Yr/Yr change2.8 %2.4 %2.9 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change0.7 %0.7 %1.0 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.1 %1.1 %1.1 %
Personal Outlays - $ level11.740 thous billion $

The consumer sector made a comeback in May with income and spending improving. Personal income gained 0.5 percent after a 0.1 percent rise in April. Expectations were for a 0.2 percent increase. The wages & salaries component advanced 0.3 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase.

Consumer spending rebounded 0.3 percent in May, following a 0.3 percent drop the month before. The market consensus expected a 0.4 percent improvement. Durables led the gain.

Headline inflation was soft with a 0.1 percent rise after declining 0.3 percent in April. Analysts projected a 0.1 percent rise. The core inflation rate gained 0.1 percent in May, following no change in April. Market expectations were for a 0.1 percent rise.

The latest inflation numbers confirm some Fed officials concern that inflation is running too low. Year-on-year, headline prices were up only 1.0 percent in May versus 0.7 percent in April. The core was up 1.1 percent, matching the April pace. These numbers are well below the Fed's inflation target of 2.0 percent.

The consumer sector improved in May in both income and spending but inflation remained low. The Fed will likely see this report as mixed for ongoing decisions about quantitative easing. The recovery is improving in the consumer sector but it is just one month's data and inflation is below target.

Consensus Outlook
Personal income in April was flat after a 0.3 percent rise the month before. The important wages and salaries component was unchanged, following an increase of 0.2 percent in March. Weakness came from a decline in goods-producing industries and an essentially flat government component. Personal spending in April fell 0.2 percent after edging up 0.1 percent the month before. The dip was led by a drop in nondurables. Also, the large services component barely rose. Durables posted a modest gain. In real terms, spending was not as bad, rising 0.1 percent in April, following a 0.2 percent increase the prior month. Headline inflation was pulled down by lower gasoline prices-but core price inflation also was sluggish. The PCE price index fell 0.3 percent in April after slipping 0.1 percent the prior month. Core PCE price inflation eased to no change, following a 0.1 percent rise in March.

Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/313/13/294/295/316/278/28/309/2711/812/612/23
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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