2013 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 12/6/2013 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2013
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M change0.5 %0.5 %0.3 %0.1 % to 0.5 %-0.1 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.3 %0.1 % to 0.4 %0.3 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change0.1 %0.1 %0.0 %0.0 % to 0.1 %0.0 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.1 %0.1 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.2 %0.1 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change0.9 %0.9 %0.7 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.2 %1.2 %1.1 %
Personal Outlays - $ level11.985 thous billion $

Overall consumer spending picked up a bit as expected at the beginning of the fourth quarter but not by much, to plus 0.3 percent in October vs plus 0.2 percent in September. Strength was in durable goods reflecting strong auto sales. Smaller gains were posted for nondurable goods and services.

The income side of the report is especially soft, at minus 0.1 percent following two very strong months at plus 0.5 percent. The decline is the first since January and may be related to the impact of the government shutdown on private wages. Wages & salaries are especially soft, up only 0.1 percent following gains of 0.4 and 0.6 percent in the two prior months.

Inflation readings are very soft with the price index unchanged and the core index up only 0.1 percent. The year-on-year rate for the price index is only plus 0.7 percent with the core year-on-year rate at plus 1.1 percent, both declining in the month and both well below the Fed's goal of 2 percent.

Consensus Outlook
Overall consumer spending slowed a bit as expected at the end of the third quarter, to plus 0.2 percent in September following a 0.3 percent rise in August. Weakness was in durable goods which offset gains for nondurable goods and services. A plus was a second solid gain for personal income, up 0.5 percent for a second straight month. Growth in wages and salaries did slow 1 tenth but still came in at respectable 0.4 percent.

Looking ahead, from the employment report for October, aggregate earnings in the private sector were up 0.3 percent, implying moderate growth for the private wages & salaries component in personal income. Spending may be soft. For October, unit new motor vehicle sales dipped 0.3 percent but it's hard to know the price effects in advance-including off and on discounting. Retail sales excluding autos rose only 0.2 percent in October. PCE price inflation should be soft based on the earlier released CPI. The October headline CPI was down 0.1 percent and the core CPI was up 0.1 percent.

Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/313/13/294/295/316/278/28/309/2711/812/612/23
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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