2013 Economic Calendar
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Producer Price Index  
Released On 12/13/2013 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2013
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI - M/M change-0.2 %-0.1 %-0.2 % to 0.5 %-0.1 %
PPI less food & energy - M/M change0.2 %0.1 %0.0 % to 0.2 %0.1 %
PPI -Yr/Yr change0.3 %0.7 %
PPI less food & energy - Yr/Yr change1.4 %1.3 %
PPI - level197.5 index level
Core PPI - level185.9 index level

For November, there was widespread softness in inflation at the producer level. The November PPI edged down 0.1 percent, following a decline of 0.2 percent in October. Market expectations were for a 0.1 percent dip. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, eased to a 0.1 percent rise after gaining 0.2 in October. Analysts projected a 0.1 percent increase.

At the headline level, weakness was led by energy which decreased 0.4 percent, following a decrease of 1.5 percent in October. Gasoline prices declined 0.7 percent in November after a drop of 3.8 percent in October. Food prices also were sluggish, posting at unchanged after rebounding rebounded 0.8 percent October.

Leading the rise within the core, prices for light motor trucks increased 0.6 percent. Higher prices for agricultural machinery and equipment also contributed to the advance in the finished core index. Tugging down on the core was a 0.8 percent drops in prices for passenger cars and a 0.5 percent decrease for computers.

For the overall PPI, the year-ago rate posted at 0.7 percent versus 0.3 percent in October (seasonally adjusted). The core rate eased to 1.3 percent from 1.4 percent in October. On a not seasonally adjusted basis for November, the year-ago headline PPI was up 0.7 percent, while the core was up 1.3 percent.

The bottom line is that inflation is close to nonexistent at the producer level and the doves at the Fed can argue that inflation is too low and that it is too soon to taper at the December 17-18 FOMC. Hawks will point to improvement in the real economy.

Consensus Outlook
The producer price index in October declined 0.2 percent after dipping 0.1 percent the month before. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, firmed to 0.2 percent after rising 0.1 percent in September. Food prices rebounded 0.8 percent after falling 1.0 percent in September. Energy fell 1.5 percent, following a gain of 0.5 percent in September. Gasoline prices dropped 3.8 percent in October, following a dip of 0.1 percent the month before. For the core, leading the October advance, prices for passenger cars climbed 1.7 percent. By contrast, the index for light motor trucks edged down 0.1 percent.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. Effective with the January 2014 PPI data release in February 2014, BLS transitioned from the Stage of Processing (SOP) to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system. The headline PPI (for Final Demand) measures price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to final demand: personal consumption, capital investment, government purchases, and exports.  Why Investors Care
It is always a good idea to look at more than a few months of data to get a sense of changes in established trends. Monthly changes in the PPI are mainly volatile because of sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. The core PPI eliminates the sharper fluctuations.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Yearly changes tend to smooth out more severe monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of the underlying rate of inflation. Even with the smoother trend, note that the core PPI does not fluctuate as much as the total PPI.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/152/203/144/125/156/147/128/149/1310/2911/2112/13
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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