2013 Economic Calendar
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Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 12/16/2013 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2013
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level-2.21 4.50 0.00  to 8.00 0.98 

New orders continue to slide in the Empire State report pointing to contraction ahead for New York's manufacturing economy. The main index came in barely above zero in the December report, at 0.98 for the third flat reading in a row with the new orders index at minus 3.54 following the prior month's minus 5.53. Unfilled orders are extending their long run of contraction and at a very steep minus 24.10.

Shipments so far this month, however, have expanded, at 7.66 vs November's minus 0.53. But with orders down, shipments are very likely to resume contraction in the January report. Other readings are also weak including a speeding up of delivery times, which indicates that capacity in the supply chain is loose, with inventories showing a major contraction, one that likely points to an intentional draw as manufacturers in the region prepare for weakness ahead.

Other readings include no change for employment with price readings showing some pressure for inputs and only the slightest pricing power for finished goods.

The calendar is busy this morning with manufacturing readings with the national flash PMI coming out at 8:58 a.m. ET followed by the industrial production which will offer definitive information on national shipments for November.

Consensus Outlook
The Empire State manufacturing index turned negative in November, falling to minus 2.21 in the November reading versus 1.52 in October. Though the degree of change was slight, the breadth of change was wide with negatives sweeping the November readings. New orders were at minus 5.53 with unfilled orders at a very steep minus 17.11. Lack of orders hinted at further declines in other readings including shipments, at minus 0.53, and employees, at zero for November. But this was only the first time since May that the Empire State index was in the minus column, which may point more to a flattening in growth not a reversal.

The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 200 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/152/153/154/155/156/177/158/159/1610/1511/1512/16
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

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