2013 Economic Calendar
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Industrial Production  
Released On 7/16/2013 9:15:00 AM For Jun, 2013
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Production - M/M change0.0 %0.2 %-0.1 % to 0.7 %0.3 %
Manufacturing - M/M0.1 %0.2 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.3 %
Capacity Utilization Rate - Level77.6 %77.7 %77.7 %77.4 % to 77.8 %77.8 %
cap util - level77.609 index level

Industrial production regained some momentum in June after weak numbers in April and May. Overall industrial production rose 0.3 percent, following no change in May (originally unchanged) and a 0.3 percent decline in April. Expectations were for a 0.2 percent advance.

The manufacturing component gained 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent rise in May. Analysts projected a 0.2 percent gain. Excluding motor vehicles, manufacturing posted a 0.2 percent advance, matching the pace in May.

Among durables major components, the largest gains in June were for machinery, for miscellaneous manufacturing, and for motor vehicles and parts, which all posted gains of more than 1 percent. Wood products, primary metals, aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment, and furniture and related products all decreased. The production of nondurable goods was unchanged in June after having edged up 0.1 percent in May.

The output of utilities declined 0.1 percent after dropping 2.8 percent in May. Production at mines jumped 0.8 percent, following a 0.4 percent gain the prior month.

Capacity utilization for total industry improved to 77.8 percent in June from 77.7 percent the month before. The market expected 77.7 percent.

Manufacturing showed improvement in June but the level of activity still is somewhat subdued. The index for manufacturing decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the second quarter, after having advanced 5.1 percent in the first quarter.

Nonetheless, the June data show manufacturing perhaps headed back in the right direction, albeit at a moderate pace. The positive numbers for the July Empire State manufacturing survey also suggest a moderate recovery in manufacturing strength.

The traditional non-NAICS numbers for industrial production may differ marginally from the NAICS basis figures.

Consensus Outlook
Industrial production was unchanged in May after declining 0.4 percent in April. The manufacturing component edged up 0.1 percent, following a decline of 0.4 percent in April. Excluding motor vehicles, manufacturing rose only 0.1 percent in May after a 0.4 percent decrease the prior month. The output of utilities decreased in May after a drop of 3.2 percent the month before. This component weakness was the main reason for the miss at the headline level. Production at mines gained 0.7 percent after rebounding 1.1 percent in April. Capacity utilization for total industry decreased to 77.6 percent in May from 77.7 percent the month before. Expectations were for 77.9 percent.

The Federal Reserve's monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. The production index measures real output and is expressed as a percentage of real output in a base year, currently 2012. The capacity index, which is an estimate of sustainable potential output, is also expressed as a percentage of actual output in 2012. The rate of capacity utilization equals the seasonally adjusted output index expressed as a percentage of the related capacity index.

The index of industrial production is available nationally by market and industry groupings. The major groupings are comprised of final products (such as consumer goods, business equipment and construction supplies), intermediate products and materials. The industry groupings are manufacturing (further subdivided into durable and nondurable goods), mining and utilities. The capacity utilization rate -- reflecting the resource utilization of the nation's output facilities -- is available for the same market and industry groupings.

Industrial production was also revised to NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) in the early 2000s. Unlike other economic series that lost much historical data prior to 1992, the Federal Reserve Board was able to reconstruct historical data that go back more than 30 years.  Why Investors Care
The industrial sector accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP. Yet, it creates much of the cyclical variability in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation's factories, mines and utilities. In the past, supply bottlenecks created inflationary pressures as the utilization rate hit 84 to 85 percent.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/162/153/154/165/156/147/168/159/1610/2811/1512/16
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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