2013 Economic Calendar
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Industrial Production  
Released On 12/16/2013 9:15:00 AM For Nov, 2013
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Production - M/M change-0.1 %0.1 %0.6 %0.2 % to 1.0 %1.1 %
Manufacturing - M/M0.3 %0.5 %0.5 %0.2 % to 0.6 %0.6 %
Capacity Utilization Rate - Level78.1 %78.2 %78.4 %78.2 % to 78.7 %79.0 %
cap util - level78.078 index level

Highlights
Industrial production for November surged on utilities output but manufacturing was quite healthy for the month. Overall industrial production jumped 1.1 percent, following a 0.1 percent rise in October. The latest number topped the consensus forecast for a 0.6 percent increase for November.

Turning to major components, manufacturing jumped 0.6 percent, following a rise of 0.5 percent in October. The November figure matched the consensus projection for a 0.5 percent advance. Motor vehicles played a key role in boosting November manufacturing output. Nonetheless, output was quite healthy elsewhere. Excluding motor vehicles, manufacturing increased 0.5 percent after gaining 0.6 percent in October.

The production of durable goods advanced 0.8 percent in November. The output of motor vehicles and parts increased 3.4 percent, following a 1.3 percent dip in October. Gains of nearly 1.0 percent or more were recorded for wood products; non-metallic mineral products; fabricated metal products; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; furniture and related products; and miscellaneous manufacturing. Decreases were registered for primary metals, for machinery, for computers and electronic products, and for aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment; each declined 0.2 percent.

The output of nondurables rose 0.5 percent in November for its largest increase since December 2012. The index for textile and product mills rose 1.7 percent, while the indexes for petroleum and coal products and for chemicals both advanced 0.9 percent.

The output of utilities surged 3.9 percent, following a dip of 0.3 percent in October percent in October. Mining activity made a comeback of 1.7 percent after decreasing 1.5 percent the prior month. Temporary shutdowns of oil and gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico in anticipation of Tropical Storm Karen contributed to the October decrease.

Capacity utilization for total industry jumped to 79.0 percent from 78.2 percent in October. Analysts anticipated 78.4 percent.

Manufacturing clearly regained momentum over the last two months. Whether the Fed begins taper this Wednesday, the question is whether this is enough to offset still sluggishness in the labor market and very soft inflation.

The traditional non-NAICS numbers for industrial production may differ marginally from the NAICS basis figures.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Industrial production for October slipped 0.1 percent after jumping 0.7 percent in September. Importantly, the manufacturing component advanced 0.3 percent in October, following a rise of 0.1 percent the month before. Manufacturing increased despite a decline of 1.3 percent in motor vehicles and parts in October. Excluding motor vehicles, manufacturing gained 0.4 percent after no change in September. Output of utilities fell 1.1 percent in October after jumping 4.5 percent in September. Mining activity decreased 1.6 percent, following a gain of 1.0 percent in September. Capacity utilization for total industry slipped to 78.1 percent from 78.3 percent in September. Looking ahead, production worker hours in manufacturing were up 0.5 for the month, suggesting a significant gain in the manufacturing component for November industrial production.

Definition
The Federal Reserve's monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. The production index measures real output and is expressed as a percentage of real output in a base year, currently 2012. The capacity index, which is an estimate of sustainable potential output, is also expressed as a percentage of actual output in 2012. The rate of capacity utilization equals the seasonally adjusted output index expressed as a percentage of the related capacity index.

The index of industrial production is available nationally by market and industry groupings. The major groupings are comprised of final products (such as consumer goods, business equipment and construction supplies), intermediate products and materials. The industry groupings are manufacturing (further subdivided into durable and nondurable goods), mining and utilities. The capacity utilization rate -- reflecting the resource utilization of the nation's output facilities -- is available for the same market and industry groupings.

Industrial production was also revised to NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) in the early 2000s. Unlike other economic series that lost much historical data prior to 1992, the Federal Reserve Board was able to reconstruct historical data that go back more than 30 years.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The industrial sector accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP. Yet, it creates much of the cyclical variability in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation's factories, mines and utilities. In the past, supply bottlenecks created inflationary pressures as the utilization rate hit 84 to 85 percent.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/162/153/154/165/156/147/168/159/1610/2811/1512/16
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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