2013 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Sentiment
Released On 6/14/2013 9:55:00 AM For Jun(p), 2013
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Sentiment Index - Level84.5 84.5 82.0  to 86.2 82.7 

Highlights
Consumer spirits have been on a sharp climb the last couple of months, making a dip back in the consumer sentiment index, to 82.7 vs May's 84.5, little surprise. The consumer's fundamental outlook for the economy is little changed with the expectations component actually rising nearly 1 point to 76.7 which is near a recovery high. A separate reading on the 12-month economic outlook is up 2 points to 102.

But there is weakness in the report and it's in the assessment of current conditions, which is down nearly 6 points from May to 92.1. The comparison with May is very important, offering an early indication of consumer weakness so far in June in what will hold down expectations for consumer spending during the month.

Gasoline prices have been inching higher, reflected in inflation expectations which likewise are inching higher. One-year expectations are up 1 tenth to 3.2 percent with 5-year expectations also up 1 tenth to 3.0 percent.

The Dow isn't showing much reaction to this report and is now moving to opening highs despite the dip in the headline index. The consumer, boosted by rising home prices and a slowly improving labor market, is likely to become an increasing focus for the economy given the slowing underway in the nation's manufacturing sector and in the global economy.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Reuter's/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index in May hit a recovery high, reaching 84.5 and up a very big and higher-than-expected 8.1 points from April. A breakdown between the first half, when the index came in at 83.7, and the second half showed the strongest acceleration taking in place in the first half but extending strongly, though at a slightly slower rate, through the second half where the implied reading was 85.3. Both components of the composite-current conditions and expectations-showed strong gains with current conditions at a recovery best of 98.0. The comparison with April's 89.9 hints at improvement in the next set of readings on the consumer in June. Expectations at 75.8, have been higher, but not by much and that was in October and November which was before the series of shocks that began to hit confidence: the year-end fiscal cliff, the first-of-the-year payroll tax hike, and the March sequester.

Definition
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey. Preliminary estimates for a month are released at mid-month. Final estimates for a month are released near the end of the month.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Consumer sentiment is mainly affected by inflation and employment conditions. However, consumers are also impacted by current events such as bear & bull markets, geopolitical events such as war and terrorist attacks. Investors monitor consumer sentiment because it tends to have an impact on consumer spending over the long run (although not necessarily on a monthly basis.)
 

 

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/182/12/153/13/153/294/124/265/175/316/146/287/127/268/16
Release For: JanJanFebFebMarMarAprAprMayMayJunJunJulJulAug
 
Released On: 8/309/139/2710/1110/2511/811/2712/612/23
Release For: AugSepSepOctOctNovNovDecDec
 


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