2013 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Sentiment
Released On 6/28/2013 9:55:00 AM For Jun, 2013
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Sentiment Index - Level82.7 83.0 81.0  to 85.3 84.1 

Highlights
Consumer sentiment held steady and positive this month with slight weakness in the first half of the month offset by strength in the second half. The index ends June at 84.1 vs 82.7 at mid-month which points to an 85 to 86 pace the last two weeks. The index ended May at 84.5.

But a negative indication does come from the current conditions index which ends June at 93.8 vs May's 98.0. This is tangible month-to-month decline that does not point to strength for the June slate of economic indicators.

But the expectations component does show strength, at 77.8 for a 2 point gain from May. This hints at building confidence in the longer term outlook for personal income growth. A separate reading on the 12-month economic outlook confirms the positive vibes, at 104 vs 102 at mid-month and 100 in May.

Gas prices have been stable to slightly lower making for little change in inflation expectations which are at 3.0 percent for the 1-year outlook, down 1 tenth from May, and at 2.9 percent for the 5-year outlook which is unchanged from May.

Though the headline index came in more than 1 point above the Econoday consensus, the Dow isn't getting any lift at all from this report which, despite overall strength, does point to a little trouble with the monthly comparison in current conditions.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Reuter's/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index in June (preliminary) made a dip back to 82.7 versus May's 84.. The consumer's fundamental outlook for the economy was little changed with the expectations component actually rising nearly 1 point to 76.7 which was near a recovery high. A separate reading on the 12-month economic outlook was up 2 points to 102. But there was weakness in the report and it was in the assessment of current conditions, which was down nearly 6 points from May to 92.1.

Definition
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey. Preliminary estimates for a month are released at mid-month. Final estimates for a month are released near the end of the month.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Consumer sentiment is mainly affected by inflation and employment conditions. However, consumers are also impacted by current events such as bear & bull markets, geopolitical events such as war and terrorist attacks. Investors monitor consumer sentiment because it tends to have an impact on consumer spending over the long run (although not necessarily on a monthly basis.)
 

 

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