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Consumer Sentiment
Released On 11/27/2013 9:55:00 AM For Nov, 2013
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Sentiment Index - Level72.0 73.3 72.0  to 76.0 75.1 

Highlights
Consumer sentiment popped surprisingly higher, to 75.1 for the final November reading vs Econoday expectations for 73.3. The mid-month reading was 72.0 which implies a solid upper 70s level for the last two weeks which is the best pace since August. The index ended October at 73.2.

Helping the index is a bounce back in expectations, to 66.8 vs 62.3 at mid-month and 62.5 at the end of October. Expectations are the swing component in the report, responding quickly to shocks such as the government shutdown which took October levels for this reading to 2 year lows.

The current conditions component, ending this month at 88.0 vs 89.9 for final October, indicates no more than slight weakness for monthly comparisons. Inflation expectations are steady, at 2.9 percent for both the 1- and 5-year outlooks.

This report, along with this morning's Bloomberg consumer comfort report, remain soft going into the holidays but are bouncing back from the government shutdown better than yesterday's consumer confidence report from the Conference Board which was held down by extending weakness, not recovery, for expectations. The Dow is showing no significant reaction to today's report.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Reuter's/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index slipped to 72.0 for the early November reading versus 73.2 for final October and versus 75.2 in the early October reading. The latest result was the 7th straight dip going through both early and final readings back to final July. The erosion continues to be centered in expectations which were at 62.3, down steadily from July's peak at 76.5. Current conditions have also been coming down but less so, to 87.2 in the preliminary November reading versus a peak of 99.7 in early July.

Definition
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey. Preliminary estimates for a month are released at mid-month. Final estimates for a month are released near the end of the month.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Consumer sentiment is mainly affected by inflation and employment conditions. However, consumers are also impacted by current events such as bear & bull markets, geopolitical events such as war and terrorist attacks. Investors monitor consumer sentiment because it tends to have an impact on consumer spending over the long run (although not necessarily on a monthly basis.)
 

 

2013 Release Schedule
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