2013 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 6/3/2013 10:00:00 AM For May, 2013
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level50.7 51.0 49.0  to 52.5 49.0 

The ISM's manufacturing sample reports the weakest level of general activity since June 2009 as the May PMI falls to 49.0 to signal monthly contraction vs April. And it doesn't look like ISM's sample will be popping back quickly as new orders fell substantially, from 52.3 to 48.8 for the lowest reading since July last year. Backlog orders are also down, 5 points lower to 48.0 for the lowest reading since January.

Production, at 48.6, was especially weak in the month with employment, at 50.1, once again dead flat for a second month. Delivery times shortened, inventories edged lower as did prices -- all consistent with slowing conditions.

The manufacturing sector has definitely been bumpy and today's report from the ISM points to trouble for the government's manufacturing data for May, to begin next week with the industrial production report. The Dow is showing little initial reaction to this report which, however, will likely be a negative for the session.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey for April slowed to 50.7 from 51.3 the month before. But details were more favorable. Positives in the report were acceleration for new orders, up 9 tenths to 52.3, and a back-to-back build in backlogs at 53.0. A drop in inventories, perhaps tied to concern over future demand, was a standout negative which weighed heavily on the composite headline index. Another negative was stalling in employment growth, but otherwise production increased and export orders were strong.

The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
The ISM manufacturing index (formerly known as the NAPM Survey) is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/22/13/14/15/16/37/18/19/310/111/112/2
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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