2013 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 11/5/2013 10:00:00 AM For Oct, 2013
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level54.4 54.5 52.4  to 56.0 55.4 

Highlights
Prior strength in new orders is giving an increasing boost to current conditions for ISM's non-manufacturing sample where composite growth rose to 55.4 in October vs an already solid 54.4 in September. The business activity component shows special strength, at 59.7 vs September's 55.1. And in a boost for the outlook on Friday's jobs report, this report's employment index rose to 56.2 from 52.7 in what is one of the better readings of the year.

Growth in new orders backed off but not much, with the index down from the near 60 level to 56.8 but this index had been very strong in the prior 3 months and peaked just over 60 in August. Other readings are mostly steady including prices which show easing pressure, at 56.1 for a more than 1 point decline.

The ISM non-manufacturing report is pointing to building momentum in ongoing activity in what will boost expectations for fourth-quarter GDP. The government's first report on the third quarter will be posted on the Econoday calendar on Thursday morning. The Dow is moving off opening lows following today's report.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey slipped in September to 54.4 from 58.6 in August and 56.0 in July to indicate sizable slowing in composite activity. This slowing follows a recovery best in August and a near recovery best in July and despite the slowing the rate of monthly growth is still very respectable. But activity may be improving in coming months. Growth in new orders was more than respectable, at 59.6 which aside from August's 60.5 was the best rate since the easy comparisons early in the recovery. New export orders were also very strong, at 57.5 for a big 7 point jump.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/42/53/54/35/36/57/38/59/510/311/512/4
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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