2013 Economic Calendar
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Factory Orders  
Released On 11/4/2013 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2013
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Factory Orders - M/M change-0.1 %1.7 %0.6 % to 2.5 %1.7 %

Factory orders are bouncing up and down on swings in aircraft, outside of which the factory sector appears soft. Factory orders for September jumped an as-expected 1.7 percent as aircraft orders swung higher in the month. August orders slipped 0.1 percent, as aircraft orders were flat, while July orders fell 2.8 percent as monthly aircraft orders fell sharply. Note that reports for both September and August were released at the same time today, the result of catch-up following the government shutdown.

The core for this report is the reading excluding transportation equipment which is where aerospace is classified. This reading is down 0.2 percent in September after a 0.4 percent dip in August. The declines point to flat conditions at best for the factory sector.

Capital goods orders swung higher in September due to aerospace. Excluding aerospace, capital goods orders fell 1.3 percent following a 1.0 percent rise in August that followed a sharp 3.5 percent decline in July. Consumer goods orders are also down, dipping 0.1 percent following a 0.4 percent decline in July.

The soft reading on core capital goods suggests that business investment is on the light side right now, in line with soft conditions on the consumer side.

Some reports on manufacturing have been week and others strong like Friday's report from the ISM. Taken together, the factory sector is probably moving moderately higher with the help of commercial aircraft. Watch for manufacturing components in Thursday's GDP report and Friday's employment report.

Consensus Outlook
Factory orders fell 2.4 percent in July. The good news is that the decline was centered in transportation equipment, specifically aircraft. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 1.2 percent. Durable orders came in at minus 7.4 percent which is 1 tenth more severe than the initial estimate issued last week. The surprise in the report was a big bounce back in non-durable orders which, boosted by price effects for petroleum and coal, jumped 2.4 percent versus the prior month's 0.5 percent decline.

The Commerce Department is releasing data for both August and September.

Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.  Why Investors Care
Even though monthly shipment data fluctuate less than new orders, both series show underlying trends more clearly by looking at year-over-year changes. In 2005 for example,new orders rose more rapidly than shipments due to large gains in aircraft orders. Aircraft orders have a long lead to shipment.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/42/43/64/25/36/57/28/29/511/411/412/5
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct

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