2013 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Confidence
Released On 10/29/2013 10:00:00 AM For Oct, 2013
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Consumer Confidence - Level79.7 80.2 75.0 70.0  to 79.0 71.2 

Highlights
The government shutdown really weighed on consumer confidence which fell to 71.2 from a revised 80.2. At 11 percent, the dip in percentage terms is the largest since 12 percent in January, a month that was also hit by a fiscal standoff in Washington.

But in what is a likely plus in the details, the weakness this month is centered entirely in expectations which fell from 84.7 to 71.5, a low for this year that ends 5 straight months of plus 80 readings for this component. Note that the DC standoff was likely resolved too late in the initial sampling for the Conference Board report where the cutoff for the preliminary reading was likely mid-month. Watch for an upward revision to today's headline when the full month sample for October is reported in next month's report.

The component for the present situation continues to show much less volatile, at 70.7 vs 73.5 for what is a 4th straight reading over 70, a trend that's consistent with steady and soft month-on-month growth for the economy. A negative on the present situation side is a sharp 2.2 percentage point rise to 35.8 percent for those that describe jobs as hard to get. This points to another month of weakness for monthly payroll growth.

Consumer spirits took a hit from what is proving to be another shock to the economy, and once again a shock tied to Washington. But spirits often quickly rally especially for expectations where swings are common. The Dow is cutting early gains following today's report.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in September dipped 2.1 points to 79.7. However, there were some positives. The present situation component was up 2.3 points to 73.2 which, next to July's 73.6, is the best reading of the recovery. Those saying jobs are currently hard to get, which is a closely followed reading, was down 6 tenths to a new recovery low of 32.7 percent. Additionally, there was a 2 tenths gain to 11.5 percent for those that describe jobs in the current market as plentiful.

Definition
The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Typically retail sales will move in tandem with consumer optimism - although not necessarily each and every month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/292/263/264/305/286/257/308/279/2410/2911/26
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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