2013 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Credit  
Released On 7/8/2013 3:00:00 PM For May, 2013
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Consumer Credit - M/M change$11.1 B$10.9 B$13.0 B$8.0 B to $16.0 B$19.6 B

Consumers were out in force in May as consumer credit rose a sharp $19.6 billion. Revolving credit jumped $6.6 billion for the largest gain since May last year and the second largest of the recovery. The gain points to a jump in credit card use which, if extended, would be a big plus for retailers. But the trend for revolving credit has been very flat, up one month and down the next which raises the risk that May's gain will be an outlier.

Non-revolving credit also jumped in the month, up $13.0 billion for yet another outsized gain that reflects both strong car sales but also gains in the student loan component that are tied in part to ongoing government acquisitions of student loans from private lenders, acquisitions that do not necessary reflect current student borrowing.

The consumer indications in this report are favorable and in line with what turned out to be a solid month for retail sales in May. Next data on the US consumer will be tomorrow morning with the weekly chain-store reports which have been a little bit on the soft side in recent weeks.

Consensus Outlook
Consumer credit outstanding continues to be a tale of two components -- revolving credit which is going nowhere and non-revolving credit which is going straight up. Total credit outstanding gained $11.1 billion in April, which is strong and in trend. But strength is not coming from revolving credit which, since 2007, has been up and down, up $0.7 billion in April and down $0.9 billion in March. Credit cards are the heart of this component. Non-revolving credit is another story. A strong increase in motor vehicle sales during April helped make for another strong increase for this component which rose $10.4 billion to make up the vast bulk of the headline increase. But also a factor behind the increase in non-revolving credit, which has been going up for the last three years, is the government's ongoing acquisition of student loans from private lenders, a factor that does not necessarily point to an ongoing increase in student borrowing.

The dollar value of consumer installment credit outstanding. Changes in consumer credit indicate the state of consumer finances and portend future spending patterns.  Why Investors Care
The debt-to-income ratio shows how indebted consumers are relative to income. A rising ratio indicates that consumers are taking on greater debt burdens with respect to income growth. In a growing economy, this may not be dangerous. However, indebtedness could quickly become a problem if income and employment conditions turn around. The yearly change in debt outstanding shows yearly trends in debt growth and tends to be less volatile than the monthly change.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/82/73/74/55/76/77/88/79/910/711/712/6
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