2013 Economic Calendar
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S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI  
Released On 8/27/2013 9:00:00 AM For Jun, 2013
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
20-city, SA - M/M1.0 %1.0 %1.0 %0.6 % to 1.4 %0.9 %
20-city, NSA - M/M2.4 %2.5 %2.2 %
20-city, NSA - Yr/Yr12.2 %12.2 %12.2 %11.3 % to 12.3 %12.1 %

Home price appreciation is very strong but is a bit less frothy than early in the year. Case-Shiller's 20-city adjusted index is up 0.9 percent in the June report vs an average monthly gain of 1.4 percent from January to May. But the year-on-year adjusted gain, at a very sizable 12.0 percent, is just off its best level of the recovery which is May at plus 12.2 percent.

Monthly declines have been popping up in the data for the first time this year but are still isolated and mostly marginal. Year-on-year rates are strongest out West, around the 20 percent area led by Las Vegas at 24.8 percent and San Francisco at 24.4 percent. Note that West coast cities posted some of the sharpest declines during the 2008 meltdown. Cities showing the least gains this year are New York, at a year-on-year plus 3.2 percent, and Cleveland at 3.4 percent.

Unadjusted data are followed closely in this report and tell the same story with the year-on-year rate at 12.1 percent for the 20-city index. The unadjusted monthly gain in June, a month when buyer traffic is strong and sellers have pricing power, is 2.2 percent vs a revised 2.5 percent in May.

Prices for existing homes are very strong and remain a major plus for homeowners. A risk, however, to continued appreciation is the rise in mortgage rates which may now be holding down gains. Next housing data on the Econoday calendar will be tomorrow with purchase applications followed by pending home sales.

Consensus Outlook
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (SA) in May gained 1.0 percent, although quite strong was down from gains of 1.7 and 1.9 percent in the prior two months. May's data showed gains across 18 of 20 cities with modest declines in Minneapolis and Cleveland interrupting what had been sweeping gains across the 20 city sample going back to the beginning of the year. Year-on-year, prices showed a 12.1 percent gain in May which matches April's recovery high.

The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home re-sales. The expanded 20-city measure is the key series. The original series (still available) covered 10 cities. A national index is published quarterly. The indexes are based on single-family dwellings with two or more sales transactions. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published monthly on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 AM ET. The latest data are reported with a two-month lag. For example data released in January 2016 are for November. Note that S&P, citing large seasonal swings in the housing sector and the risk of adjustment inaccuracies, urges readers to track unadjusted data in this report.  Why Investors Care
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is based on repeat transactions. That is, appreciation or depreciation is for same houses resold. This index is probably the best measure of changes in home prices. While it covers the gamut of types of houses sold, it is limited to metropolitan areas.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/292/263/264/305/286/257/308/279/2410/2911/26
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep

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