2014 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Price Index  
Released On 12/17/2014 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2014
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
CPI - M/M change0.0 %-0.1 %-0.3 % to 0.1 %-0.3 %
CPI - Y/Y change1.7 %1.3 %
CPI less food & energy- M/M change0.2 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.2 %0.1 %
CPI less food & energy - Y/Y change1.8 %1.7 %
CPI - level237.642 index level
Core CPI - level239.162 index level

Consumer price inflation turned down in November on sharply lower gasoline prices plus dips in some core subcomponents. Overall consumer price inflation fell 0.3 percent after no change in October. The November number was below market expectations for a 0.1 percent dip. Energy dropped 3.8 percent, following a 1.9 percent decline the month before. Gasoline plunged 6.6 percent in November after a 3.0 drop in October. Food rose 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase in October. Excluding food and energy, consumer price inflation posted at 0.1 percent in November easing from 0.2 percent in October. Analysts forecast a 0.1 percent gain.

Within the core, the shelter index rose 0.3 percent, and the indexes for medical care, airline fares, and alcoholic beverages also rose. In contrast, the indexes for apparel, used cars and trucks, recreation, household furnishings and operations, personal care, and new vehicles all declined in November.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the headline CPI was up year-ago 1.3 percent versus 1.7 percent in October. Excluding food and energy, the year-ago rate was 1.7 percent, compared to 1.8 percent the prior month.

The latest CPI report gives the Fed room to keep monetary policy loose. However, there still likely will be lots of debate on timing of the next rate move and on guidance.

Consensus Outlook
The consumer price index in October was a flat 0.0 percent after firming 0.1 percent in September. Excluding food and energy, the CPI was warmer, gaining 0.2 percent after nudging up 0.1 percent in September. The consensus was for a 0.1 percent increase in October. Energy fell 1.9 percent after slipping 0.7 percent in September. Gasoline dropped 3.0 percent after declining 1.0 percent the month before. Food price inflation rose 0.1 percent, following a gain of 0.3 percent in September. With crude oil prices down further, the headline CPI will be soft and possibly negative.

The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation for the consumer. Annual inflation is also closely watched.

The consumer price index is available nationally by expenditure category and by commodity and service group for all urban consumers (CPI-U) and wage earners (CPI-W). All urban consumers are a more inclusive group, representing about 87 percent of the population. The CPI-U is the more widely quoted of the two, although cost-of-living contracts for unions and Social Security benefits are usually tied to the CPI-W, because it has a longer history. Monthly variations between the two are slight.

The CPI is also available by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and for many metropolitan areas. The regional and city CPIs are often used in local contracts.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also produces a chain-weighted index called the Chained CPI. This measures a variable basket of goods and services whereas the regular CPI-U and CPI-W measure a fixed basket of goods and services. The Chained CPI is similar to the personal consumption expenditure price index that is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve Board.  Why Investors Care
It is always a good idea to look at more than a few months of data to get a sense of changes in established trends. Monthly changes in the CPI are mainly volatile because of sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. The core CPI eliminates the sharper fluctuations.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Yearly changes tend to smooth out more severe monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of the underlying rate of inflation. Even with the smoother trend, note that the core CPI does not fluctuate as much as the total CPI.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2014 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/162/203/184/155/156/177/228/199/1710/2211/2012/17
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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