2014 Economic Calendar
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Personal Income and Outlays  
Released On 9/29/2014 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2014
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Personal Income - M/M change0.2 %0.3 %0.2 % to 0.4 %0.3 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change-0.1 %0.0 %0.5 %0.2 % to 0.6 %0.5 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change0.1 %-0.1 %-0.3 % to -0.1 %0.0 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change0.1 %0.0 %0.0 % to 0.2 %0.1 %
Personal Income - Yr/Yr change4.3 %4.4 %4.3 %
Consumer Spending - Yr/Yr change3.6 %3.8 %4.1 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change1.6 %1.5 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change1.5 %1.5 %
Personal Outlays - $ level12.322 thous billion $

The consumer sector showed improvement in August for both income and spending. Personal income growth posted a 0.3 percent gain in August, following a 0.2 percent rise in July. The latest number matched expectations for a 0.3 percent advance. The wages & salaries component was even stronger with a 0.4 percent boost, following a 0.2 percent increase the month before.

Personal spending jumped 0.5 percent after no change in July. Analysts forecast a 0.5 percent boost. Strength was in the durables component which jumped 1.8 percent after no change in July. August reflected a jump in auto sales. Lower gasoline prices tugged down on nondurables. Nondurable spending declined 0.3 percent after no change in July. Services jumped 0.5 percent in August after being unchanged the month before.

PCE inflation slowed to a monthly no change in August from 0.1 percent in July. The latest figure came in slightly higher than expectations for a 0.1 percent decrease. Core PCE inflation posted at 0.1 percent, equaling the pace for July. The median market forecast was for no change.

On a year-ago basis, headline PCE inflation eased to 1.5 percent from 1.6 percent in July. Year-ago core inflation was 1.5 percent in both August and July. Again, PCE inflation remains well below the Fed goal of 2 percent but is edging upward.

On the news, equity futures were little changed.

Today's report indicates that the consumer sector is moderately healthy. There has been some monthly volatility but on average income and spending growth look moderately positive.

Consensus Outlook
Personal income decelerated in July after two strong months. Personal income rose 0.2 percent in July after gains of 0.5 percent in both June and May. The wages & salaries component followed a similar track, advancing 0.2 percent in July after increases of 0.4 percent in each of the prior two months. Personal spending unexpectedly declined 0.1 percent after a 0.4 percent jump in June. PCE inflation slowed to a monthly 0.1 percent in July from 0.2 percent in June. The latest figure equaled expectations. Core PCE inflation posted at 0.1 percent-the same pace as in June. Analysts projected 0.1 percent.

Personal income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions to private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from personal income.

Personal consumption expenditures are the major portion of personal outlays, which also include personal interest payments and transfer payments. Personal consumption expenditures are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Each month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also compiles the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index. This inflation index measures a basket of goods and services that is updated annually in contrast to the CPI, which measures a fixed basket.

 Why Investors Care
Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2014 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/313/33/285/15/306/268/18/299/2910/3111/2612/23
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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