2014 Economic Calendar
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Retail Sales  
Released On 2/13/2014 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2014
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Retail Sales - M/M change0.2 %-0.1 %-0.1 %-0.3 % to 0.3 %-0.4 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change0.7 %0.3 %0.1 %-0.2 % to 0.4 %0.0 %
Retails Sales - $ level431.879 $ billions
Retails Sales less auto - $ level350.189 $ billions
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change0.6 %0.1 %0.2 %0.0 % to 0.3 %-0.2 %

Highlights
Overall retail sales in January fell 0.4 percent, following a decrease of 0.1 percent in December (originally up 0.2 percent). The market consensus was for a 0.1 percent dip.

Autos pulled down the total. Motor vehicle & parts declined 2.1 percent, following a decrease of 1.8 percent in December. Excluding autos, sales were unchanged after gaining 0.3 percent the month before (originally up 0.7 percent). Analysts called for a 0.1 percent rise. Gas station sales increased 1.1 percent after jumping 1.5 percent in December. Excluding both autos and gasoline, sales slipped 0.2 percent after rising 0.1 percent in December. The consensus was for a 0.2 percent rise.

In the core, strength was seen in electronics & appliance stores; building materials & garden equipment; and grocery stores. Declines were seen in furniture & home furnishings; health & personal care; clothing; sporting goods, hobby, et al; department stores; nonstore retailers; and food services & drinking places.

The latest report suggests that fourth quarter GDP may be revised down and that first quarter GDP could be soft. Again, atypically adverse weather likely affected the data. Equity futures declined on the news.

Consensus Outlook
Retail sales in December suggested a moderately healthy consumer sector-somewhat in contrast to the December employment report. Overall retail sales in December rose 0.2 percent, following a gain of 0.4 percent the month before. As expected, autos tugged down sharply on sales. Motor vehicle & parts dropped 1.8 percent after a 1.9 percent increase in November. Excluding autos, sales posted a 0.7 percent boost after a November rise of 0.1 percent. Gas station sales rebounded 1.6 percent, following a 1.5 percent decline the month before. Excluding both autos and gasoline, sales advanced a healthy 0.6 percent in December, following a 0.3 percent gain in November. In the core, strength was seen in food & beverage stores, health & personal care, clothing, nonstore retailers, and food services & drinking places. January's dip in unit new auto sales may tug down on overall retail sales.

Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2014 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/142/133/134/145/136/127/158/139/1210/1511/1412/11
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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