2014 Economic Calendar
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Retail Sales  
Released On 11/14/2014 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2014
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Retail Sales - M/M change-0.3 %0.2 %-0.3 % to 0.5 %0.3 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change-0.2 %0.2 %0.0 % to 0.4 %0.3 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change-0.1 %0.1 %0.5 %0.3 % to 0.7 %0.6 %

Highlights
Retail sales in October were up despite downward headwinds from lower gasoline prices. Retail sales in October rebounded 0.3 percent after declining 0.3 percent in September. Analysts forecast a 0.2 percent rise for October. Auto sales made a partial rebound of 0.5 percent after a 1.2 percent drop in September and jump of 1.8 percent in August, largely reflecting unit new motor vehicle sales. Excluding autos, sales gained 0.3 percent after no change in September. Expectations were for a 0.2 percent boost. Gasoline station sales fell 1.5 percent in October after decreasing 0.8 percent the prior month. Excluding both autos and gasoline sales jumped 0.6 percent in October after a 0.1 percent rise the month before. The median market forecast was for 0.5 percent.

Within the core, moderate strength was seen in nonstore retailers, sporting goods & hobbies, food services & drinking places, and miscellaneous store retailers. Electronics & appliance stores declined along with department stores.

Today's report is moderately positive as component gains were broadly based and consistent with recent gains in consumer confidence and a downward trend in initial jobless claims.

Consensus Outlook
Retail sales in September declined 0.3 percent after jumping 0.6 percent in August. Excluding autos, sales slipped 0.2 percent after gaining 0.3 percent in August.. Excluding both autos and gasoline sales dipped 0.1 percent, following a jump of 0.5 percent in August. Expectations were for 0.5 percent. Within the core, softness was seen in declines furniture & home furnishings, building materials, nonstore retailers, clothing & accessories, and sporting goods & hobbies. Gains were posted for electronics & appliances (likely iPhones), health & personal care, general merchandise, and food services & drinking places. The latest report was very mixed. It was not surprising that a downswing in auto sales after a strong August pulled down sales. And the same was expected for gasoline prices pulling down sales. But core sales eased despite a surge in electronics sales. But there was monthly volatility. Core sales eased after a very strong August. On a very positive note, food services & drinking places gained a robust 0.6 percent, matching the pace for August. This is a very discretionary component, suggesting that the consumer is still spending. Looking ahead, auto sales may add modestly to retail sales while lower gasoline price may pull down.

Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2014 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/142/133/134/145/136/127/158/139/1210/1511/1412/11
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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