2014 Economic Calendar
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Retail Sales  
Released On 12/11/2014 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2014
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Retail Sales - M/M change0.3 %0.5 %0.4 %0.1 % to 0.7 %0.7 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change0.3 %0.4 %0.1 %-0.1 % to 0.4 %0.5 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change0.6 %0.7 %0.5 %0.3 % to 0.8 %0.6 %

Highlights
Retail sales in November came in strong despite lower gasoline prices. Retail sales in November posted a 0.7 percent boost after rebounding 0.5 percent in October Market expectations were for 0.4 percent rise for November. Autos jumped a notable 1.7 percent after gaining 0.8 percent in October. Excluding autos, sales increased 0.5 percent after rising 0.4 percent in October. Forecasts were for a 0.1 percent boost.

Gasoline station sales fell on lower prices. Sales declined 0.8 percent after a 1.3 percent drop in October. Excluding both autos and gasoline sales advanced 0.6 percent in November after a 0.7 percent rise the prior month. The median market forecast was for 0.5 percent.

Within the core strength was broad based, led by building materials & garden equipment (up 1.4 percent); clothing & accessories (up 1.2 percent); and nonstore retailers (up 1.0 percent).

Today's retail sales report is favorable for fourth quarter GDP in the personal consumption component. Currently, the consumer sector is leading the recovery with confidence and spending up.

Consensus Outlook
Retail sales in October were up despite downward headwinds from lower gasoline prices. Retail sales in October rebounded 0.3 percent after declining 0.3 percent in September. Auto sales made a partial rebound of 0.5 percent after a 1.2 percent drop in September and jump of 1.8 percent in August, largely reflecting unit new motor vehicle sales. Auto sales have fluctuated due to on and off sales incentives. Excluding autos, sales gained 0.3 percent after no change in September. Due to declines in gasoline prices, gasoline station sales fell 1.5 percent in October after decreasing 0.8 percent the prior month. Excluding both autos and gasoline, sales jumped 0.6 percent in October after a 0.1 percent rise the month before.

Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2014 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/142/133/134/145/136/127/158/139/1210/1511/1412/11
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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