2014 Economic Calendar
POWERED BY  econoday logo
U.S. & Intl Recaps   |   Event Definitions   |   Today's Calendar   |   

Industrial Production  
Released On 10/16/2014 9:15:00 AM For Sep, 2014
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Production - M/M change-0.1 %-0.2 %0.4 %0.3 % to 0.5 %1.0 %
Manufacturing - M/M-0.4 %-0.5 %0.4 %0.2 % to 0.5 %0.5 %
Capacity Utilization Rate - Level78.8 %78.7 %79.0 %78.9 % to 79.1 %79.3 %
cap util - level78.810 index level

Industrial production for September topped expectations-and it was not just a swing in utilities. The manufacturing component was positive and above analysts' forecasts.

Industrial production jumped an outsized 1.0 percent in September after a decline of 0.2 percent in August. Forecasts were for 0.4 percent. Yes, utilities were the big mover, spiking a monthly 3.9 percent, following a 1.2 percent gain the prior month.

But manufacturing was solid, rebounding 0.5 percent in September after a 0.5 percent decline the month before. Expectations for the manufacturing component were for a rise of 0.4 percent. Mining advanced 1.8 percent, following a 0.3 percent increase in August.

Within manufacturing, the production of durable goods increased 0.4 percent in September. The durables subcomponent was led by the aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment. The production of nondurable goods moved up 0.5 percent in September. With the exception of petroleum and coal products, each of the major components of nondurables posted gains in September.

Overall capacity utilization jumped to 79.3 percent from 78.7 percent in August.

Manufacturing appears to have regained some steam for the U.S. economy. The third quarter still appears likely to post moderately healthy growth. Today's jobless claims report adds to that argument.

Consensus Outlook
Industrial production slipped 0.1 percent in August after a gain of 0.2 percent the month before. Analysts expected a 0.3 percent boost for the month. The decline may be deceiving, tied to auto assemblies and retooling schedules. Manufacturing production fell 0.4 percent after a 0.7 percent increase in July. Weakness was led by motor vehicles which dropped a monthly 7.6 percent. In contrast, motor vehicle sales have been healthy, indicating that this was just a retooling timing issue. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles rose 0.1 percent after a matching rise in July. Auto assemblies (autos and light trucks) fell to an annualized pace of 11.36 million units from 12.91 million in July. For other industries, mining rebounded 0.5 percent after slipping 0.3 percent in July. Utilities made a partial comeback of 1.0 percent, following a drop of 2.7 percent the month before. Capacity utilization eased to 78.8 percent from 79.1 percent in July.

The Federal Reserve's monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. The production index measures real output and is expressed as a percentage of real output in a base year, currently 2012. The capacity index, which is an estimate of sustainable potential output, is also expressed as a percentage of actual output in 2012. The rate of capacity utilization equals the seasonally adjusted output index expressed as a percentage of the related capacity index.

The index of industrial production is available nationally by market and industry groupings. The major groupings are comprised of final products (such as consumer goods, business equipment and construction supplies), intermediate products and materials. The industry groupings are manufacturing (further subdivided into durable and nondurable goods), mining and utilities. The capacity utilization rate -- reflecting the resource utilization of the nation's output facilities -- is available for the same market and industry groupings.

Industrial production was also revised to NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) in the early 2000s. Unlike other economic series that lost much historical data prior to 1992, the Federal Reserve Board was able to reconstruct historical data that go back more than 30 years.  Why Investors Care
The industrial sector accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP. Yet, it creates much of the cyclical variability in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation's factories, mines and utilities. In the past, supply bottlenecks created inflationary pressures as the utilization rate hit 84 to 85 percent.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2014 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/172/143/174/165/156/167/168/159/1510/1611/1712/15
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

powered by  [Econoday]