2014 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Confidence  
Released On 10/28/2014 10:00:00 AM For Oct, 2014
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Consumer Confidence - Level86.0 89.0 86.8 80.0  to 90.0 94.5 

Highlights
Consumer confidence is at a new recovery high of 94.5, up from an upwardly revised 89.0 in September and surpassing the previous recovery high of 93.4 in August. The index was last this strong in October 2007, right at the beginning of the Great Recession.

October's gain is concentrated almost entirely in the expectations component, which jumped 8.6 points to 95.0 in a reading that isn't quite a recovery high but near one, next only to February 2011's 97.5. The strength in expectations reflects optimism in the outlook for both jobs and income, both of which show convincing gains in this month's report.

Showing only marginal strength is the present situation component which rose only 7 tenths to 93.7. Yet this is still a very strong reading, surpassed only once in the recovery in this year's August reading of 93.9. Looking at details, the reading on jobs-hard-to get, at only 29.1 percent vs 29.4 percent in September, hints at strength for the October jobs report.

Inflation expectations ticked 1 tenth higher to plus 5.4 percent which, however, is very quiet for this reading. Buying plans in the report are soft especially for cars in a dip that may be payback from the summer's very heavy sales.

The consumer sector has yet to kick into high gear this recovery though confidence data are beginning to hint that such a break out may be in the cards, perhaps as early as this holiday's shopping season which is certain to get a boost from low gas prices. Hard data on the consumer will come out Friday with the personal income and outlays report.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in September fell to 86.0 from August's revised recovery high of 93.4. The September reading was well below the Econoday consensus forecast for 92.5 and well below the low end estimate of 90.0. Weakness was centered in the expectations component as confidence in the economic outlook and in the jobs outlook fell. And there was also weakness in the current conditions component as fewer consumers described current job openings as plentiful, at 15.1 percent vs August's 17.6 percent. But the jobs-hard-to-get reading, which is closely watched for clues on the monthly employment report, showed only fractional weakness, rising to 30.1 percent from 30.0 percent.

Definition
The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.

 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Typically retail sales will move in tandem with consumer optimism - although not necessarily each and every month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2014 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/282/253/254/295/276/247/298/269/3010/2811/2512/30
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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