2015 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 12/4/2015 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2015
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change271,000 298,000 190,000 160,000  to 219,000 211,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level5.0 %5.0 %4.9 % to 5.2 %5.0 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change268,000 304,000 185,000 150,000  to 214,000 197,000 
Participation Rate - level62.4 %62.5 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.4 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.5 hrs34.6 hrs34.5 hrs34.5 hrs to 34.6 hrs34.5 hrs

Highlights
Payroll growth is solid and, though wages aren't building steam, today's employment report fully cements expectations for December liftoff. Nonfarm payrolls rose a very solid 211,000 in November which is safely above expectations for 190,000. And there's 35,000 in upward revisions to the two prior months with October now standing at a very impressive 298,000. The unemployment rate is steady and low at 5.0 percent with the participation rate less depressed, up 1 tenth to 62.5 percent.

But earnings data are not impressive, up a monthly 0.2 percent vs October's outsized 0.4 percent gain. And the year-on-year rate for average hourly earnings is down 2 tenths to 2.3 percent.

Payroll data show a 46,000 jump in construction where activity right now is very strong. This follows construction gains of 34,000 and 19,000 in the two prior months. Trade & transportation, reflecting activity in the supply chain, is also very strong with November and October gains of 49,000 and 46,000. Payrolls are also on the rise in retail trade, up 31,000 and 41,000 the last two months to indicate that retailers are gearing up aggressively for this holiday season. One negative, however, is a 12,000 dip in temporary help services which nearly cuts in half the prior month's 28,000 gain. Demand for temporary services is considered a leading indicator for permanent hiring.

And weekly hours slipped in the month, down 1 tenth to 34.5 hours. Data on manufacturing are flat and point to little change for November production. And one negative in the report is a 1 tenth uptick to 9.9 percent for the broadly defined U-6 unemployment rate which had, however, dropped sharply in the prior months.

Despite soft spots and though earnings are flat, this report confirms that the nation's labor market is solid and growing and, for the Fed, it supports arguments for the beginning of policy normalization.

Consensus Outlook
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise 190,000 in November, the same consensus for the October report which proved very much stronger at 271,000. A consensus result, and even a result at the 160,000 low end of the estimate range, would be more than enough to cement expectations for a rate hike at the mid-month FOMC. The unemployment rate, which slipped 1 tenth in the prior month, is expected to hold steady at a very low 5.0 percent. Average hourly earnings, which jumped 0.4 percent in October, are expected to slow but still show some pressure, at plus 0.2 percent.

Definition
The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2015 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/92/63/64/35/86/57/28/79/410/211/612/4
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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