2015 Economic Calendar
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GDP  
Released On 6/24/2015 8:30:00 AM For Q1(f):2015
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR-0.7 %-0.2 %-0.4 % to 0.1 %-0.2 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR-0.1 %-0.1 %-0.1 % to -0.1 %0.0 %

Highlights
The second revision to first-quarter GDP came in as expected, at minus 0.2 percent. Exports were near the top of the negative side, reflecting the strong dollar's negative effect on foreign demand. A rise in imports was the quarter's biggest negative.

The heavy weather of the quarter contributed to an outright contraction in business spending (nonresidential fixed investment) and an abrupt slowing in consumer spending (personal consumption expenditures).

Despite PCE slowing, spending on services, that included an upward revision for restaurants, was the strongest component in the first quarter. Also adding to GDP was an inventory build, one however that was largely unwanted and tied to the quarter's severe weather and port slowdown. Residential investment was also a positive. The GDP price index was unchanged in the quarter.

First-quarter 2015 wasn't as badly hit as first-quarter 2014 when GDP sank 2.1 percent, a dip that was then reversed by a 4.6 percent bounce back in second-quarter 2014. Estimates for this second quarter's GDP growth are settling into the 2 to 3 percent range. We'll get yet another look at the first quarter with annual revisions on July 30.

Recent History Of This Indicator
GDP data in the first quarter showed no life at all, the result of special factors including unusually severe weather, the West Coast port strike, and even the risk of faulty seasonal adjustments. This will be the last look at the quarter with the Econoday forecast calling for slight contraction at minus 0.2 percent.

Definition
Gross Domestic Product represents the total value of the country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically-produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and government entities. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, as well as in index form. Economists and market players always monitor the real growth rates generated by the GDP quantity index or the real dollar value. The quantity index measures inflation-adjusted activity, but we are more accustomed to looking at dollar values.

Household purchases are counted in personal consumption expenditures -- durable goods (such as furniture and cars), nondurable goods (such as clothing and food) and services (such as banking, education and transportation). Private housing purchases are classified as residential investment. Businesses invest in nonresidential structures, durable equipment and computer software. Inventories at all stages of production are counted as investment. Only inventory changes, not levels, are added to GDP.

Net exports equal the sum of exports less imports. Exports are the purchases by foreigners of goods and services produced in the United States. Imports represent domestic purchases of foreign-produced goods and services and must be deducted from the calculation of GDP. Government purchases of goods and services are the compensation of government employees and purchases from businesses and abroad. Data show the portion attributed to consumption and investment. Government outlays for transfer payments or interest payments are not included in GDP.

The GDP price index is a comprehensive indicator of inflation. It is typically lower than the consumer price index because investment goods (which are in the GDP price index but not the CPI) tend to have lower rates of inflation than consumer goods and services. Note that contributions of each component, as averaged over the prior year, are tracked in the table below (components do not exactly sum to total due to chain-weighted methodology). Consumption expenditures, otherwise known as consumer spending, has over history been steadily making up an increasing share of GDP.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Real GDP growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate. It measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Quarterly growth rates are often volatile; consequently, economists also like to look at the year-over-year growth in GDP. The yearly changes tend to be more stable.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
It is common to compare quarterly changes at annual rates in the GDP deflator. These can be volatile, just like the quarterly swings in real GDP growth; as a result, the trend in inflation is better determined by year- over- year changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2015 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/302/274/295/296/247/308/279/2510/2911/2412/22
Release For: Q4(a):2014Q4(p):2014Q1(a):2015Q1(p):2015Q1(f):2015Q2(a):2015Q2(p):2015Q2(f):2015Q3(a):2015Q3(p):2015Q3(f):2015
 
A: Advance P: Preliminary F: Final


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