2015 Economic Calendar
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Released On 5/14/2015 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2015
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI-FD - M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.2 %-0.1 % to 0.4 %-0.4 %
PPI-FD - Y/Y change-0.8 %-1.3 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.1 %0.0 % to 0.2 %-0.2 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - Y/Y change0.9 %0.8 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.2 %0.1 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - Y/Y change0.8 %0.7 %
PPI-FD Goods - M/M change0.3 %0.3 %-0.7 %
PPI-FD Goods - Y/Y change-4.3 %-5.5 %
PPI-FD Services - M/M change0.1 %0.1 %-0.1 %
PPI-FD Services - Y/Y change0.9 %0.9 %

Despite the rise underway in oil prices, inflation remains dormant. Producer prices for total final demand fell 0.4 percent in April which is far below the Econoday low estimate for minus 0.1 percent. Excluding food & energy, producer prices fell 0.2 percent which is below the low estimate for no change. Excluding food, energy & trade services, producer prices inched 0.1 percent higher which is at the low estimate. The overall year-on-year reading is at a record low of minus 1.3 percent.

Despite the rise in oil prices, final energy demand fell a steep 2.9 percent in April with the year-on-year rate at minus 24.0 percent. Gasoline prices fell 4.7 percent in the month. Final demand for food extended its long negative run, at minus 0.9 percent with the year-on-year rate at minus 4.2 percent. Final demand for services is down 0.1 percent with the year-on-year rate one of the few readings in the plus column, at 0.9 percent which nevertheless is well below the Fed's general inflation target of 2.0 percent.

This report stands alongside yesterday's import & export price report as major support for the doves at the Fed. Though the hawks are warning that inflation is bound to reappear as energy-price effects reverse, there is still no early evidence of this in the data.

Consensus Outlook
Prices at the wholesale level been extremely low but a bounce-back in energy prices, still low but climbing, is expected begin to add some pressure. The PPI-FD is expected to rise 0.2 percent though when excluding food and energy, the gain is seen at only 0.1 percent.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. Effective with the January 2014 PPI data release in February 2014, BLS transitioned from the Stage of Processing (SOP) to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system. The headline PPI (for Final Demand) measures price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to final demand: personal consumption, capital investment, government purchases, and exports.  Why Investors Care
With the redefined and expanded PPI Final Demand series, energy still creates monthly volatility. However, services and construction have softened the headline and core numbers.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
A sluggish economy in 2013 and 2014 slowed inflation at the producer level.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2015 Release Schedule
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