2015 Economic Calendar
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Industrial Production  
Released On 1/16/2015 9:15:00 AM For Dec, 2014
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Production - M/M change1.3 %-0.1 %-1.5 % to 0.3 %-0.1 %
Manufacturing - M/M1.1 %1.3 %0.2 %-0.5 % to 0.3 %0.3 %
Capacity Utilization Rate - Level80.1 %80.0 %80.0 %78.6 % to 97.8 %79.7 %
cap util - level80.074 index level

Highlights
The manufacturing sector is notably better than the headline number for December industrial production due to a drop in utilities. Industrial production for December slipped 0.1 percent, following a jump of 1.3 percent in November (original estimate of up 1.3 percent). Analysts expected a 0.1 percent dip on a reversal of November's surge in utilities.

Manufacturing, however, gained 0.3 percent following a surge of 1.3 percent in November. The median forecast for the manufacturing component was for an increase of 0.2 percent. Mining rebounded a healthy 2.2 percent, following a 0.3 percent decrease the month before. Utilities dropped a sharp 7.3 percent after a jump of 4.2 percent in November.

The production of durable goods increased 0.2 percent in December, and the production of nondurable goods rose 0.4 percent. Among major durable goods industries, primary metals posted the largest increase, 2.2 percent, while computers and electronic products registered a gain of 1.2 percent. The largest declines, of nearly 1 percent or more, were recorded by wood products and by motor vehicles and parts. Production increased for most nondurable goods industries, with the largest advance recorded by apparel and leather; only the plastics and rubber products industry registered a decrease. The production index for other manufacturing industries (publishing and logging) declined 0.3 percent.

Overall capacity utilization eased to 79.7 percent in December from 80.0 percent in November.

After discounting the heavily volatile utilities component, manufacturing continues recent improvement. Combined with a moderately positive consumer sector, economic growth is looking somewhat favorable. Looking ahead, the latest regional manufacturing surveys for January were mixed with Empire State accelerating and Philly Fed slowing.

Consensus Outlook
Industrial production for November jumped 1.3 percent after edging up 0.1 percent in October. Manufacturing surged 1.1 percent, following a gain of 0.4 percent in October. The rise in factory output was well above its average monthly pace of 0.3 percent over the previous five months and was its largest gain since February. Mining slipped 0.1 percent in October, following a 1.0 percent drop the month before. Utilities rebounded 5.1 percent after a 0.7 percent decline in October. Overall capacity utilization advanced to 80.1 percent in November from 79.3 percent in October. December's manufacturing component likely is to be moderate. Production worker hours in manufacturing were up 0.3 for the month.

Definition
The Federal Reserve's monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. The production index measures real output and is expressed as a percentage of real output in a base year, currently 2012. The capacity index, which is an estimate of sustainable potential output, is also expressed as a percentage of actual output in 2012. The rate of capacity utilization equals the seasonally adjusted output index expressed as a percentage of the related capacity index.

The index of industrial production is available nationally by market and industry groupings. The major groupings are comprised of final products (such as consumer goods, business equipment and construction supplies), intermediate products and materials. The industry groupings are manufacturing (further subdivided into durable and nondurable goods), mining and utilities. The capacity utilization rate -- reflecting the resource utilization of the nation's output facilities -- is available for the same market and industry groupings.

Industrial production was also revised to NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) in the early 2000s. Unlike other economic series that lost much historical data prior to 1992, the Federal Reserve Board was able to reconstruct historical data that go back more than 30 years.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The industrial sector accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP. Yet, it creates much of the cyclical variability in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation's factories, mines and utilities. In the past, supply bottlenecks created inflationary pressures as the utilization rate hit 84 to 85 percent.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2015 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/162/183/164/155/156/157/158/149/1510/1611/1712/16
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