2016 Economic Calendar
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FOMC Meeting Announcement  
Released On 6/15/2016 2:00:00 PM
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Federal Funds Rate - Target Level0.25 to 0.50 %0.375 %0.25 % to 0.50 %0.25 to 0.50 %

Highlights
As expected, the FOMC is holding its target rate at a range of 0.25 to 0.50 percent in a statement that is mostly balanced. But there are definitely dovish aspects including job gains which, described in the last statement as continuing to strengthen, are now described as having diminished. Business investment is also a negative, described once again as soft.

But there are positives as household spending, which is the heart of the nation's economy, is upgraded from moderating in April to now having strengthened. Also the drag from net exports is now said to have lessened. Otherwise, the text is an exact copy of the April statement.

The Fed's quarterly forecasts were also released showing that policy makers still see two hikes this year but at a slower path over the next two years. Expectations for GDP growth are still centered near 2 percent but did edge lower. On the hawkish side, the outlook for inflation is improved with the PCE core seen rising slightly at a 1.7 percent midpoint.

Today's results are unanimous, at 10-0 as arch hawk Esther George of Kansas City shifted dovishly back to the pack. Underscored by the downgrade for jobs, the odds for a July FOMC rate hike will turn completely on the results of the June employment report.

Consensus Outlook
The Federal funds rate target is expected to remain unchanged at a midpoint of 0.375 percent between a range 0.25 to 0.50 percent, where they were set at the December FOMC and have yet to move. Weakness throughout the May employment report immediately ended any expectations for a rate hike at the June meeting. The perceived chances for a rate hike at the July meeting will depend on both the statement and also the press conference, especially Janet Yellen's assessment of the committee's expectations for second-quarter growth.

Definition
The FOMC meeting announcement is a policy statement issued at the conclusion of each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. It offers updates on economic conditions with special focus on the health of the labor market and the latest on inflation. It also updates the status of the federal funds target which is the FOMC's official policy interest rate. This rate is expressed within a range, such as 1.75 to 2.00 percent. The center of this range is the implied target. The higher this target, the more restrictive monetary policy becomes, the lower this target, the more accommodative policy becomes. Other policy tools are also discussed in the meeting announcement including updates on direct purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Debate is not offered in the statement, just the consensus view is expressed, though the statement does list the total committee vote and how each member voted.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Fed closely monitors the core PCE price index to indicate whether or not policy is approximately correct, overly accommodative, or too restrictive. The PCE price index is preferred to the CPI because it is more closely aligned to the cost of living than the CPI (which measures a fixed basket of goods & services.) This chart covers monthly data and the fed funds target rate reflects the monthly average. As such, it will not correspond to the most recent fed funds rate target announced by the Fed.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

2016 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/273/164/276/157/279/2111/212/14
 


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