2016 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 6/16/2016 8:30:00 AM For wk6/11, 2016
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level264 K270 K262 K to 270 K277 K
4-week Moving Average - Level269.50 K269.25 K
New Claims - Change-4 K13 K

Claims data rattled a bit in the latest report but are still trending in the right direction -- which is down. Initial claims rose 13,000 in the June 11 week to 277,000, but the 4-week average is down slightly and at 269,250 is still lower than the month-ago trend. This comparison is favorable for the June employment report.

Continuing claims, where data lag, rose a sharp 45,000 to 2.157 million in the June 4 week. But here too, the 4-week average is encouraging, up only 1,000 to 2.150 million and roughly even with the month-ago trend. The unemployment rate for insured workers did tick up a tenth but at 1.6 percent remains very favorable.

There are no special factors in today's report, one that offers a mixed set-up for next week's report when data for initial claims will track the sampling week of the monthly employment report.

Consensus Outlook
Initial jobless claims in the June 4th week, down 4,000 to 264,000, offered confirmation of strength following the weakness of the May employment report. But forecasters are expecting a move higher in the June 11th week to a 270,000 level that would, however, still be a favorable indication on the labor market. Continuing claims, where data lag by a week, have also been favorable.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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