2016 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 12/22/2016 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2016
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change4.8 %-4.0 %-6.3 % to -2.4 %-4.6 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change2.1 %2.0 %-1.9 %
Ex-transportation - M/M1.0 %0.9 %0.2 %-0.1 % to 0.7 %0.5 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr0.3 %0.1 %1.8 %
Core capital goods - M/M change0.4 %0.2 %0.9 %
Core capital goods - Yr/Yr-4.3 %-4.4 %-3.2 %

Defense came to the rescue of November's durable goods report though core capital goods orders are another positive. Durable goods fell 4.6 percent in November but were down an even sharper 6.6 percent excluding defense. When including defense and excluding transportation (commercial aircraft and vehicles), orders rose a better-than-expected 0.5 percent.

Orders for core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) rose a very solid 0.9 percent though the gain is offset slightly by a 2 tenths downward revision to October where the gain is now only 0.2 percent. Shipments of core capital goods, reflecting prior weakness in orders, show only modest life, also at 0.2 percent.

Turning back to defense, orders for defense aircraft doubled in the month, up 103 percent. Orders for defense capital goods, which include aircraft, rose 29 percent. But outside of defense, non-aircraft components show strength including communications equipment (up 6.7 percent), primary metals (up 2.3 percent), machinery (up 1.3 percent), and vehicles (up 0.8 percent).

Total shipments inched 0.1 percent forward in November with inventories also up 0.1 percent to keep the inventory-to-shipments ratio stable at 1.64. A negative in the report is a 0.2 percent dip in unfilled orders following a 0.8 percent rise in October which looks very much like an outlier.

This report is known for its volatility which for November is highlighted by aircraft, both defense and commercial for opposite reasons. In sum, year-end momentum for the factory sector appears to be in place, suggesting a better finish to what has been a flat year.

Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders rose a very sharp 4.8 percent in October but, in a give back, are expected to decline 4.0 percent in November. Ex-transportation orders, which strip out monthly swings in aircraft orders, are expected to inch 0.2 percent higher. The factory sector has been showing momentum going into year-end though capital goods have remained soft, pointing to limited business investment and a limited contribution from the nonresidential investment component of the fourth-quarter GDP report.

Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2016 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/282/253/244/265/266/247/278/259/2810/2711/2312/22
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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