Housing Starts
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Released On 8/16/2016 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2016
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Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
Starts - Level - SAAR | 1.189 M | 1.186 M | 1.180 M | 1.150 M to 1.190 M | 1.211 M | Permits - Level - SAAR | 1.153 M | | 1.160 M | 1.140 M to 1.185 M | 1.152 M |
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Highlights
Housing starts are strong but permits are flat in what are mixed indications for the nation's housing sector. July starts rose a strong 2.1 percent to a 1.211 million annualized rate which comes on top of June's 5.6 percent surge. Starts for single-family homes, the most important category, rose a very respectable 0.5 percent in July but were dwarfed by a 5.0 percent surge for multi-family homes. These results point to ongoing strength for construction.
But there may be less strength ahead based on permits which show little change, at a 1.152 million rate in July. Here the single-family reading is down 3.7 percent, offset by a jump in multi-family permits of 6.3 percent. But single-family homes are costlier to build and the decline in permits here is a major offset to the gain for multi-family units.
The housing sector is a positive for this year's economy though it's performance continues to be less than smooth.
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Consensus Outlook
A sizable decline is expected for housing starts in July to a 1.180 million annualized rate offset however by expectations for a sizable rise in housing permits to a 1.160 million rate. Starts and permits have been edging higher at a slow but steady rate this year in what is a positive for construction and overall economic growth.
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Definition
A housing start is registered at the start of construction of a new building intended primarily as a residential building. The start of construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building.
Why Investors Care
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Monthly figures are often volatile; housing starts fluctuate more than many indicators. It takes several months for total housing starts to establish a trend. Consequently, we have depicted total starts relative to a five month moving average.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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