2016 Economic Calendar
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Retail Sales  
Released On 7/15/2016 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2016
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Retail Sales - M/M change0.5 %0.2 %0.1 %-0.2 % to 0.3 %0.6 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change0.4 %0.5 %0.3 % to 0.6 %0.7 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change0.3 %0.2 %0.3 %0.3 % to 0.5 %0.7 %

June proved a fabulous month for the consumer though May, after revisions, proved only so so. Flat vehicle sales could not hold back retail sales which jumped a much higher-than-expected 0.6 percent in June, with May revised however 3 tenths lower to plus 0.2 percent. Excluding vehicles, June retail sales surged 0.7 percent as did the key ex-auto ex-gas reading.

Ex-auto ex-gas offers a gauge on underlying trends in consumer spending, a dominant one of which is ecommerce as nonstore retailers popped a 1.1 percent surge in the month which follows even stronger gains in prior months. Department stores, up 0.9 percent, show a big comeback in the month with sporting goods & hobbies strong for a second month. An outsized gain, one that hints at adjustment issues and the risk of a downward revision, is a 3.9 percent surge in building materials & garden equipment, a component that had been lagging.

This report is a major plus for the second-half economic outlook not to mention coming data on the second quarter (sales for April, after the second revision, are at a standout plus 1.2 percent). The job market is healthy and the consumer is alive and spending.

Consensus Outlook
Weak vehicle sales are expected to headline what otherwise is expected to be respectable strength for the June retail sales report. Forecasters see overall sales inching only 0.1 percent higher but rising a very solid 0.5 percent when excluding vehicles. A major positive once again is certain to come from gasoline stations where sales will be inflated by higher prices. When excluding vehicles and gasoline, sales are expected to rise a still respectable 0.3 percent to extend recent gains. However unimpressive June may prove to be at the headline level, retail sales in April and May were outstanding and should support a solid rise for second-quarter GDP.

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.  Why Investors Care
Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2016 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/152/123/154/135/136/147/158/129/1510/1411/1512/14
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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