2016 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 8/3/2016 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2016
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level56.5 56.0 55.5  to 57.0 55.5 

Highlights
Conditions, especially for orders, remain very strong for the ISM's non-manufacturing sample. The report's composite index did slip 1.0 point to 55.5 which is slightly below expectations but new orders rose in the month, up 4 tenths to 60.3 for the best showing since October last year. The bulk of the decline in the composite is due to a 3 point drop in delivery times which, in a signal of easing constraints in the supply chain, slowed only slightly in the month.

The other negative factor for the composite is a noticeable dip in employment, down 1.3 points to a very soft 51.4. This reading, in contrast to other advance indications, is not pointing to much strength for Friday's employment report. But other readings are very positive including business activity at 59.3, export orders at 55.5, and total backlog orders at 51.0 for a 4.5 point gain.

The order strength in this report points to early third-quarter acceleration for the bulk of the U.S. economy.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The ISM non-manufacturing index has been signaling solid strength for the economy all year and another month of strength is expected for July where the consensus is calling for 56.0. New orders were very strong in June, at 59.9, which points to July strength for production and perhaps employment as well. The employment index for June was only 52.7 but it was up 3 full points in what did signal strength for what turned out to be an outstanding monthly employment report.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2016 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/33/34/55/46/37/68/39/610/511/312/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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